Third wave not expected until after summer, say virus experts

A THIRD wave of Covid-19 infections is unlikely this summer, government scientists have admitted, despite modelling suggesting that Britain would see a surge in cases.

Senior experts close to the Government have said that any new wave would be more likely to arrive in the autumn, following the pattern of other seasonal respiratory infections.

Last week, a summary of modelling from the Government’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) warned that cases would begin to rise significantly soon after the full release of restrictions in June, unless some interventions, such as mask wearing, were kept in place.

Some models even suggested the summer third wave could be as big as the January peak. However, those data models have been criticised for failing to recognise that most respiratory viruses decline in summer and for not adequately reflecting the success of the vaccination programme.

A senior government scientist said there were “some big caveats” on the modelling. “A lot depends on seasonality as well so it may well be that it’s more like autumn than summer,” they said.

“Is that going to be affected by what’s happening in Europe? Well, possibly, in the sense that if you get lots of travel coming back and forth that might increase it.

“I think that the expectation is that there will be further waves but they won’t be as big as the ones that we’ve had, unless things go badly wrong.

“Timing, I think it’s more likely to be autumn than summer, but we’ll see.”

Last week, researchers from the University of Edinburgh found that sunnier areas are associated with fewer deaths from Covid-19. The team suggested that sunlight exposure may cause the skin to release nitric oxide which reduces the ability of coronavirus to replicate, as has been found in some laboratory studies.

Dr Richard Weller, corresponding author, consultant dermatologist and Reader at the University of Edinburgh, said: “There is still so much we don’t understand about Covid-19, which has resulted in so many deaths worldwide.

“These early results open up sunlight exposure as one way of potentially reducing the risk of death.”

Previous studies have found that areas with higher levels of vitamin D in the population have tended to do better in their Covid death rates. Vitamin D is known to boost the immune system.

However, Edinburgh researchers found no such link.

Prof Chris Dibben, chair in health geography at the University of Edinburgh and research co-author, said: “The relationship between Covid-19 mortality, season and latitude has been quite striking. Here we offer an alternative explanation for this phenomenon.”

Scientists from Public Health England also found that Britain gets enough sunlight between April and September to deactivate the virus outdoors.

However, they discovered that between October and March there was not enough ultraviolet light for that to happen, suggesting another reason why the virus may return in the autumn.

In Britain, NHS data shows that December tends to be the worst month for respiratory admissions to hospital, when about 1,000 occur each day.

The rise tends to start in September and peaks in December to January before tailing off in the spring, and reaching the bottom in summer.