One last heave to freedom, PM to urge
Johnson to ask for patience as he prepares to delay June 21 reopening by four weeks
BORIS JOHNSON is to encourage the public to accept “one last heave” to freedom as he delays the final step of lockdown reopening.
The Prime Minister was last night finalising his plan to push back the June 21 reopening in England by up to four weeks, owing to a surge in Covid cases. Earlier in the day he had refused to rule out further delays in the future.
It means rules for the wearing of face masks, limiting groups to six people indoors and 30 outdoors, and keeping nightclubs shut are set to remain.
The cap on weddings being attended by only 30 people is expected to be relaxed but the details of what new rules would replace it were still being debated in government last night.
Mr Johnson’s message to the nation at a Downing Street press conference today is expected to be that sticking to the rules now is worth it to avoid a future lockdown. It comes as industry leaders warned compliance with the restrictions could slip, with pub staff already facing abuse from drinkers when enforcing the rules.
A senior Westminster source said: “The message has always been cautious but irreversible. That has been our mantra throughout and that continues.
“It would be far worse to have uncertainty and go backwards. It is better to be cautious and have certainty. It is one last heave. It is a straight race between the vaccine and the virus.”
Tory MPS were last night promising to vote against extensions to the laws that enshrine Covid rules, which had been due to expire at the end of the month but will now be renewed.
Senior ministers, including Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, and Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary are understood to have signed off on the plans to delay June 21 after being briefed by Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer, and Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser.
Well-placed figures across Whitehall expect Mr Johnson to announce a fourweek delay, taking the reopening to July 19, with a review after two weeks.
Yesterday, the Prime Minister did not rule out further delays at the end of the G7 summit in Cornwall, raising fears of lockdown stretching into August.
Downing Street’s argument for the extension is that it buys more time to monitor the Indian/delta variant and, crucially, deliver millions more doses of the vaccine. In the past week the Government has delivered around 170,000 first Covid vaccine doses a day. At that rate, 4.5 million more first doses could be delivered in the four-week delay.
If it shortens the time people in their 40s have to wait for their second jab – as Scotland did yesterday – analysis suggests it could deliver up to 12 million jabs.
Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, stressed the importance of second doses, at which point people get the fullest immunity. He told The Andrew Marr Show on BBC One: “The race we are in is to get everyone as far as we possibly can to two doses.”
Mark Harper, the Tory MP who chairs the lockdown-sceptic Covid Recovery Group, said that waiting until everyone was double jabbed would mean not reopening fully until late September.
There were warnings that adherence to lockdown could become strained if the justification for the reopening delay is not clearly communicated. Chris Naylor, UK Weddings Taskforce chairperson, said some couples might decide to start holding large weddings.
One industry body leader, who asked not to be named, said some staff in pubs and restaurants were being abused.
The Telegraph understands the Government is to extend the law enshrining the rules of the reopening roadmap, which expire this month. While Mr Johnson has the backing to win a vote on the extension in Parliament, since Labour supports it, it would be opposed by vocal Tory backbench critics.
We are – as ministers have repeatedly said – in a race between the vaccine and the variants. And Britain made a significant headstart.
It is now more than six months since Margaret Keenan, 90, in Coventry, became the first person to receive a Covid vaccine outside of a trial.
Today, more than 30 million people – approaching six in 10 adults – have had two jabs, while close to 42 million have had their first.
The Government’s target to offer first doses to the whole adult population by July 31 looks set to be comfortably met, with the rollout now working through those in their 20s.
Yet today, the Prime Minister will deliver the news that a more fundamental goal of freedom appears more elusive than ever.
Next Monday – June 21 – will not be “freedom day”.
Ministers, scientists and medics have lined up in recent days to say more needs to be known about the delta variant, first seen in India, on hospitalisations, and on the effectiveness of vaccines, before significant lessening of restrictions could be allowed. Delays could allow far more vaccines to be administered, they have suggested, with the Prime Minister this weekend saying: “It may be that in the race between the vaccines and the virus, we need to make sure we give the vaccines extra legs.”
If the current pace of rollout continues, a delay of four weeks could allow an extra 12 million doses to be given; around four million more first doses, and eight million second jabs.
While data suggests the vaccines are extremely protective – just five per cent of those hospitalised have had both doses – there is concern that the variant may cause more severe illness.
Modelling for the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage) suggests the variant could cause as a third wave with as many hospitalisations as the second, while estimates suggest is 60 cent more transmissible than the Kent.
Amid evidence that one jab offers inadequate protection against infection from the now-dominant variant, the pressure is on to get second doses out asap, especially to those at greatest risk of hospitalisation.
Ministers are “on track” to get second doses to all over 50s a week today, having shortened the gap between first and second doses from 12 weeks to eight. Yesterday foreign secretary Dominic Raab said: “The race we are in is to get everyone, as far as we possibly can, to two doses.”
But the Government appears reluctant to explain what that means.
Yesterday the Scottish Government announced it was bringing forward second doses for over 40s, reducing the interval between doses to eight weeks, as for older groups.
The Westminster Government has yet to announce such a plan. If similar changes were made, around five million fortysomethings due a second dose in England could be offered one by July 5, so fully protected by July 19.
But without an acceleration, the rollout of second doses risks stalling once the target for over 50s is hit, with the rollout only due to start reaching those in their late 40s two weeks later.
This weekend, the Prime Minister said: “We’re looking at all the data but what we’re wanting to do is avoid another wave of deaths that could be prevented by allowing the vaccines to work in the way that they are.
“It may be that in the race between the vaccines and the virus, we need to give the vaccines extra legs.”
The Prime Minister was reluctant to answer an increasingly vexed question: what percentage of the population needs to be “double-vaccinated” before Britain proceeds to stage four in easing of lockdown?
The latest figures show 78 per cent of adults have received at least one jab, while 57 per cent have had two. But when considering herd immunity, the whole of the population must be considered. When children are factored into the calculations – and ministers are awaiting advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation about whether to extend the programme to children – just 44 per cent of the UK has had both jabs. Yesterday on this, and on almost everything else about lockdown, Boris Johnson would not be drawn, only promising a “whole package of information” today.