Predictions give one in 10 A-level students a three-grade boost

ONE in 10 A-level students were given a three-grade boost after teachers’ predictions replaced the algorithm last summer, an official report has found.

A new report by the exam watchdog found that private and grammar school pupils were the biggest winners from the switch to predicted grades in 2020.

The Office of Qualifications and Examinations Regulation (Ofqual) published two reports about results last summer which were at first calculated by an algorithm ditched in favour of teachers’ predictions, following public outcry. Next month pupils will be awarded teachers’ predicted grades for A-levels and GCSES for the second year in a row after exams were cancelled due to the pandemic.

Ofqual’s report found that for some students, the grades that the algorithm calculated – based on a range of factors including their own and their school’s performance in recent years – were “considerably lower” than their teachers’ predictions.

Overall, 10.3 per cent of A-level student results improved by three or more grades when their algorithm grades were ditched in favour of predictions.

This could be students who went up one grade in each of their three subjects, so for example from BBB to AAA, or students who went up more than one grade in a subject, so from ABC to AAA.

The report also found the private and grammar school students experienced the biggest boost from the move to teachers’ predictions last summer.

Analysts cited previous research which found that after taking into account prior attainment and other candidate characteristics, students from private and grammar schools were “more likely to be over-predicted at A-level”. Ofqual said: “This was reflected in our analysis where at both A-level and GCSE, independent centres had among the greatest increases in mean grades awarded in 2020, particularly towards the top of grade distribution.

“There was also some evidence that grammar schools’ outcomes increased more than those of mainstream secondaries at GCSE, particularly in the probability of candidates attaining C or above.” Ofqual said that for A-level results, sixth form colleges tended to predict “relatively lower grades” than other schools, particularly at grade C.

This year, schools were asked to submit evidence to exam boards to support their decision to predict pupils’ grades. A study this week found that private school parents are twice as likely to have pressurised teachers over grades.

Almost a quarter (23 per cent) of teachers at fee-paying schools said they have been approached or pressured by students’ families into giving out higher predictions compared to just 11 per cent of teachers at state schools in deprived areas, according to a survey.

The poll of over 3,000 teachers, commissioned by the social mobility charity the Sutton Trust, also found that just under one in five (17 per cent) of teachers at state schools in wealthy areas felt pressured over grades. Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, insisted that grades will be based on pupils’ performance rather than those whose “parents have the sharpest elbows”.

He said that teachers have tried to ensure grades are fair but many have had the “additional strain” of coping with pressure from parents.

The Sutton Trust urged universities to give “additional consideration” to students from disadvantaged backgrounds who have narrowly missed their offer grades in light of the disruption to their learning.