Scots’ dislike of Johnson should not blind them to the Union’s merits

The PM is not a welcome messenger north of the border, but Scotland is far better off in the UK

Perhaps an Englishman bearing the name of Johnson will always struggle to find a warm welcome in Scotland, given the notoriously acerbic sentiments of the great doctor. On a visit to the Highlands in 1773 he declared that “the noblest prospect which a Scotchman ever sees is the high road that leads him to England”. That was one of his more charitable observations.

His Prime Ministerial namesake heads for Scotland today with a popularity rating not much higher north of the border than that enjoyed by the celebrated 18th-century lexicographer. The SNP would have their fellow Scots believe that Boris Johnson is the latest in a long line of English rulers intent on belittling an ancient nation and denying its right to self-determination.

The Prime Minister’s task is to convince them otherwise – and that will take more than a fleeting visit to achieve. There are those in Scotland who think Mr Johnson’s unpopularity is part of the problem, the obverse of England, where he has shown an extraordinary capacity to reach voters in areas traditionally hostile to Tories.

The scale of the SNP’S success in the Holyrood elections in May was attributed in part to the “Boris factor” which stopped the Conservatives taking seats the party had hoped to win. In the latter stages of the campaign, Nicola Sturgeon switched tactics from banging on about independence to asking voters who they wanted to make decisions about Scotland’s future – her or Mr Johnson.

During the height of the pandemic she appeared almost daily on television telling Scots what they could and could not do, giving the impression of a one-woman dictatorship that her subjects seemed to find strangely reassuring. Her no-nonsense handling of the crisis was often compared favourably to the alleged shambles taking place in England, even though the outcomes for the two countries are not very dissimilar.

Ms Sturgeon has been able to use the pandemic to emphasise differences in both the style and substance of government at a time when Mr Johnson is anxious to accentuate the ties that bind. The First Minister yesterday continued to march to the beat of her own drum, announcing an end to remaining lockdown measures on August 9, with mass gatherings finally allowed weeks after England. Mask wearing will remain mandatory in indoor public spaces and on transport. Ms Sturgeon has retained the credit of voters for an ostensibly “less reckless” approach despite presiding over a chequered record in rolling out vaccines and handling school closures and exams, let alone keeping Covid out of care homes or blocking the arrival of new variants.

The big question, once we have returned to normal life and normal politics, is whether she can translate this into support for a renewed pitch at independence, aiming for another plebiscite in 2023. Recent polls have suggested that enthusiasm for separatism is waning as questions re-emerge about the capacity of Scotland to survive on its own. A recent poll found that 48 per cent would support leaving the Union, down from 52 per cent in April. Prof Sir John Curtice, the psephologist from Strathclyde University, said this indicated a “cooling of the independence ardour”.

The truth is, there has never really been much ardour for independence. Just before the 2014 referendum a rogue poll panicked the establishment by suggesting a possible win for the Yes campaign. On the day, however, it was 55:45 against. Brexit seemed to reignite separatist fervour because Scotland had voted heavily to remain in the EU, but the pandemic may well have countered that by demonstrating to Scotland the benefits of being part of the Union, especially in being able to access financial help and vaccines.

Ironically, Boris Johnson’s task is the opposite of that he faced with Brexit. Then he had to convince British voters that membership of the EU was not to their long-term advantage despite a mighty campaign by Remainers to warn of apocalyptic consequences if we left. In Scotland he needs to persuade a majority that they face penury outside the Union, and they certainly would have been hardpressed to cope during the pandemic.

The Treasury’s furlough scheme has protected some 900,000 Scottish jobs and an estimated £10billion has been allocated through the Barnett formula on top of direct support to people and businesses in Scotland.

Whichever way the SNP cut it, they will find it hard to deny that the UK’S financial clout helped them weather potential disaster, itself an echo of the reason why Scotland sought a Union with England in the first place after the Darien fiasco more than 300 years ago. Faced with national bankruptcy they found salvation in partnership with their larger neighbour.

The fear of Unionists in Scotland is that Mr Johnson is not the best person to make this case. He has previously ruled out allowing Scotland a legitimate referendum, which is a reserved matter under the 1998 devolution settlement.

Yet just this week, Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, seemed to modify that position, arguing that one would take place if it was “the settled will” of voters. Under the “right circumstances” the Westminster Government would not prevent the Scottish public from expressing their thoughts on the matter, he said.

Mr Gove realises that the Tories must avoid getting into a position where the English are seen to be denying the Scots a democratic vote, since this will become the narrative of the Nationalists. Far better to appeal to a promotion of the Union’s benefits to the Scots and English alike.

After the twin challenges of Brexit and the pandemic, Mr Johnson faces arguably the greatest of them all: keeping the Union intact. It is fraying at the edges, with the position of Northern Ireland also placed in doubt by the impact of the Brexit deal on its relationship with the rest of the UK.

Some see merit in a constitutional solution – more devolution to all four parts, including an English parliament, leading effectively to a federal Britain. However, such radicalism does not appeal to Mr Johnson. He trusts that the innate pragmatism of the Scots will prevail, whether they like him personally or not.