Virus here to stay so halt mass testing, Oxford expert says

THE delta variant of Covid has wrecked any chance of herd immunity, a panel of experts including the head of the Oxford vaccine team has said, as they called for an end to mass testing so that Britain can start to live with the virus.

Scientists said it was time to accept that there is no way of stopping the virus spreading through the entire population, and monitoring people with mild symptoms was no longer helpful.

Prof Sir Andrew Pollard, who led the Oxford vaccine team, said it was clear that the delta variant can still infect people who have been vaccinated, which made herd immunity impossible to reach, even with the UK’S high uptake.

Yesterday, the Department of Health confirmed that more than three quarters of adults have received both jabs, and calculated that 60,000 deaths and 66,900 hospitalisations have been prevented by the vaccines.

However, experts said it would never be enough to stop the virus spreading.

Speaking to the all-party parliamentary group on coronavirus, Sir Andrew said: “Anyone who is still unvaccinated will, at some point, meet the virus.

“We don’t have anything that will stop transmission, so I think we are in a situation where herd immunity is not a possibility, and I suspect the virus will throw up a new variant that is even better at infecting vaccinated individuals.”

Until recently, it was hoped that increasing the number of Britons jabbed would create a ring of protection around the population.

As late as last week, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation said one of the reasons it had advised that 16- and 17-year-olds should be vaccinated was because it may help prevent a winter wave.

However, analysis by Public Health England has shown that when vaccinated people catch the virus, they have a similar viral load to unvaccinated individuals, and may be as infectious.

Paul Hunter, a professor at the University of East Anglia and an expert in infectious diseases, told the committee: “The concept of herd immunity is unachievable because we know the infection will spread in unvaccinated populations and the latest data is suggesting that two doses is probably only 50 per cent protective against infection.

“We need to move away from reporting infections to actually reporting the number of people who are ill. Otherwise we are going to be frightening ourselves with very high numbers that don’t translate into disease burden.”

Yesterday, Sajid Javid, the Health Secretary, confirmed that third dose booster shots would be given from next month. However, Sir Andrew argued that if mass testing was not stopped, then Britain could be in a situation of continually vaccinating the population.

AGLOBAL HEALTH SECURITY EDITOR surge in American children being admitted to hospital with coronavirus is dividing doctors and regulators on either side of the Atlantic.

Dr Lee Savio Beers, president of the American Academy of Paediatrics has written to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) urging it to work “aggressively” toward authorising Covid-19 vaccines for children as young as five to 11. The jab is already available to children aged over 12 in the United States and the plea came as it experienced the largest week-on-week spike in paediatric Covid cases since the start of the pandemic. According to official data, the rate of US paediatric hospital admissions is now 3.75 times higher than it was a month ago and is equal to its highest point since January. “The delta variant has created a new and pressing risk to children and adolescents across this country,” Dr Beers wrote in the letter which was sent to the FDA last Thursday.

“Paediatricians and the families they care for have been anxiously awaiting a vaccine that can be used in children 11 years of age and younger, and especially so now given the rise of the hyper infectious delta variant.”

In the UK, the picture is very different, despite the country seeing a similar surge in delta cases.

Doctors here report only a modest increase in Covid-related hospital admissions of children and are not pushing for changes to UK vaccine policy, which recommends that children with underlying conditions or vulnerable carers are vaccinated.

So why the difference? Are American doctors getting an early view of something that may later play out here, or do different social factors – such as vaccine uptake and obesity rates – better explain the divide?

Dr Ruchi Sinha, a paediatric critical care consultant, yesterday told the all-party parliamentary group on Coronavirus that the delta wave had not, so far, resulted in a higher proportion of children being admitted to hospital in the UK. Indeed the incidence of the Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome which Covid sparks in some children seemed to be at lower levels now than it had in previous waves, she said. The majority of children being taken to hospital with Covid in the UK had underlying conditions, notably obesity, she added.

“I do think we should be offering the vaccine to children who are vulnerable and more likely to suffer,” said

Dr Sinha.

“I think it is right to roll out a vaccine to 16 to 18-year-olds, but I think the blanket rollout for 12 to 16s depends on whether we’re seeing an increase in the hospitalisation rates and in critical care rates.

“If we move forward to school opening and see that there’s an increase ... then absolutely, we need to re-evaluate.

“But, at the moment, Covid-19 in itself is not the problem.”

One factor that may explain the experience in the US is the lower rates of vaccine coverage in some communities where the delta variant is surging. For example, total hospital admissions in Florida are now at the highest levels since the pandemic began, largely because less than half the eligible population are fully vaccinated.

Dr Sinha suggested that this and the incidence of co-morbidities, including obesity, in the communities being hit may explain rising US admissions among children.

However, she added that more information was needed.