Backlog causes heart deaths and home fatalities to surge

NHS waiting lists caused by pandemic have created health time bomb among those unable to access care

HUNDREDS of people may be dying from heart problems at home each week because of the NHS backlog caused by the pandemic response.

Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows that for the week ending July 30 in England there were 1,029 more deaths than normal, yet only 389 were from Covid. The figures also show 748 excess deaths in private homes during the same period, a 33.4 per cent increase on the five-year average.

It suggests that the majority of excess deaths are now happening at home, rather than in hospitals or care homes.

Although the ONS does not release details of the cause of death, data from Public Health England show weekly heart deaths are also well in excess of usual levels, with more than 500 extra registered with heart failure, heart disease or circulatory disease for the week ending July 23. Fatalities from diabetes and liver cirrhosis are also slightly up while, in contrast, deaths from cancer, non-covid respiratory conditions and dementia, are lower than normal.

Charities have warned that a health time bomb is looming because patients could not access healthcare at the height of the pandemic.

Cardiac hospital admissions in England fell 28 per cent between March 2020 and February 2021, accompanied by a rise in heart failure deaths at home and in the community. The British Heart Foundation (BHF) estimates that cancelled procedures, missed appointments and growing waiting lists contributed to about 6,000 deaths last year.

The BHF warns that patients with heart problems may have “severely deteriorated” during the pandemic. The charity said that changes in patient behaviour, coupled with pressure on the healthcare system, “have combined to create a potential burden of unidentified and untreated cardiac disease”.

Deaths at home have continued to remain high even when deaths elsewhere have fallen, with heart problems the leading cause of mortality at home in 2020, according to the ONS.

Prof Kevin Mcconway, at the Open University, said: “Some at least of these excess deaths were very probably caused by the spell of hot weather in mid-july, though without information on what actually caused those deaths, we can’t be sure exactly how big a role the heatwave played compared to other possible reasons for excess deaths.

“In this country, hazards to health from the weather have been greater in cold spells rather than hot spells.”

Stuart Mcdonald, of the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group, added: “There is less variation in mortality rates from year-to-year in summer, compared to our more volatile winters. It’s highly unusual to see significant excess mortality in late July. In the past five years the range is 8,882 to 9,335. That compares to 10,135 this week.”

ONS figures show deaths from Covid continuing to rise, with the recent falls in case numbers not yet seen in the mortality figures. Health experts said the Government needed to find out why so many deaths are happening at home.

Prof Karol Sikora, a consultant oncologist, said: “One thing that is definitely not spoken about enough is the high number of excess deaths in the home. It’s been going on for months – why?”

Dr Charles Levinson, of Doctorcall, added: “The silence around the huge numbers of non-covid excess deaths in the home is wrong. Why are we not talking about it?”