The flu threat

It has been apparent for some months that the biggest health threat this winter will come not from Covid but flu. Every year the vaccine against influenza needs to be adjusted to account for annual mutations in the virus. Usually scientists in the northern hemisphere tweak their jabs about now, based on the dominant strain in the southern hemisphere’s winter, but there has been little flu because of the actions taken to stop the spread of coronavirus.

As we report today, this is alarming scientists. The Government is promising the biggest ever flu vaccination campaign aimed at ensuring the most vulnerable are covered. Flu in a bad year will kill as many as 30,000 people even with an effective vaccine. Its impact if the jab does not work effectively can only be guessed at. A mismatched flu jab in 2015 contributed to a serious spike in cases. A bad flu year on its own would put massive pressure on the NHS. This happened in 1999/2000 when wards were full to overflowing, patients were treated in corridors and there were 48,000 excess winter deaths, though no one suggested locking down the country.

Successive governments have every year endeavoured to maximise protection by offering all over-60s a free jab but this is predicated upon its anticipated effectiveness. People will be encouraged this year more than ever to reinforce the protection they have from Covid with a flu jab.

Some more vulnerable people will be offered boosters against coronavirus as well. But the reality is that scientists have no real idea whether we will have a largely immunised population this winter or one at greater risk than ever from a twin respiratory virus threat.