Mild but drizzly: best weather for a day out
Data analysis of visitor patterns shows climate change likely to see a shift in the UK tourist industry
Grey skies are the ideal weather for a day out, the National Trust has said – in fact, the optimum conditions are 21C temperatures and some drizzle. The charity says this attracts the maximum number of visitors to its properties. The trust analysed 85 million visits to 170 of its locations over the past five years. For outdoor locations, the ideal temperature is 24C, and numbers drop off significantly at 28C, while at indoor locations, such as stately homes, the ideal temperature is 20C.
THEY might provoke sinking hearts in parents desperate to entertain children, but grey skies are the ideal weather for a day out, the National Trust has said.
The charity says a day with 21C temperatures and some drizzle attracts the maximum number of visitors to its properties, as it warns that climate change may shift the peak tourist season to autumn from high summer.
The trust analysed 85million visits to 170 of its locations over the past five years, finding that a warm, slightly breezy day with a small amount of rain was the most popular weather for visitors to embark on a day out.
For outdoor locations, the ideal temperature is 24C, and numbers drop off significantly at 28C, while at indoor locations, such as stately homes, the ideal temperature is 20C. Above this level, visitor interest starts to decline.
As well as historic houses, the charity manages parks, beaches, coastline and gardens. The research suggests that a damp day doesn’t scupper a National Trust day out because visitors can rely on a combination of outdoor and indoor attractions.
However, rising summer temperatures could lead visitors to stay away, with even outdoor spots seeing less activity on the very hottest days, the charity warned. Many of its properties, gardens and coastal areas have suffered because of high temperatures as well as heavy rainfall and erosion, and these effects are likely to become more pronounced as the climate changes.
Last month, the Met Office warned that the number of extremely hot days in the UK, when temperatures exceed 25C, could increase fourfold with a 4C rise in global temperatures.
Global agreements currently aim to limit warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels and keep it as close to 1.5C as possible. However, current trends suggest these targets may not be met.
Last month, the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change said the world was on track for 3C of warming by 2100.
The trust’s data, collected from 2015 to 2019, before properties were forced to close because of Covid-19, shows over a third of visits took place in the summer, with less than a fifth in the autumn.
But more intense summer heatwaves could change this dynamic, with cooler autumn days predicted to attract more visitors as the ideal conditions become more common at that time of year.
Inland, indoor attractions could also suffer from a drop in visitors under hotter conditions, the charity said. Further research is planned to understand why ostensibly similar locations attract different visitor patterns under hot weather, to see how people could still be persuaded to come on the hottest days.
Lizzy Carlyle, head of climate and environment at the National Trust, said: “We have a lot to do to prepare the UK tourist industry for the effects of climate change … what hasn’t been fully addressed is what the domestic tourism industry could be facing unless we take drastic action to reduce emissions.”
There is something rather apt about the National Trust, an organisation established to preserve British heritage, setting out to discover what sends visitors flocking to its properties and discovering that the answer is a drizzly summer’s day. It is for the best. The charity would barely raise enough to keep the curtains vacuumed – let alone to fund research into its benefactors’ behaviour – if a visit to Chartwell or Cliveden relied on clear blue skies. Who knew that setting aside money for a rainy day might mean spending it on entry to a folly and a cream tea in the cafe? The trust fears climate change will interfere with visitor numbers. It is in the nature of a charity that is 126 years old to look to the future, yet the demise of British drizzle seems a way off. Monday is a bank holiday, after all.