Biden’s reputation has been forever tarnished
The president’s next test is likely to be Iran. His allies need assurances the Afghan debacle won’t be repeated
In his election campaign against Donald Trump, Joe Biden declared that his intention was to “regain the respect of the world”. Instead, his abandonment of Afghanistan and the manner in which it was carried out has been greeted with appalled dismay by allied governments and jubilation in Moscow and Beijing. For President Biden, the “nice guy” image has gone out of the window. His reputation and legacy have been tarnished for good. Many in the US are recalling Barack Obama’s reported statement about his deputy: ‘‘Never underestimate Joe’s ability to screw things up.”
He is not the only one who will find it hard to retrieve their reputation. Vice President Kamala Harris had promised a new emphasis internationally on women’s rights.
The withdrawal agreement negotiated by Trump with the Taliban was never honoured for one moment by the latter. They talked about peace while intensifying the war. The obvious course, not taken, was to tell them that the withdrawal would be suspended until they entered into genuine peace negotiations. For the 3,500 US troops were not there in a fighting role and the Afghan special forces were fighting so long as they could count on US air support.
Instead, every jihadist on the planet is now celebrating this huge boost to their morale. Biden keeps asserting that al-qaeda has “gone”. In reality the Taliban have never cut their ties with them and the final ultimatum to Ashraf Ghani to leave was delivered by Anas Haqqani, the head of Afghan al-qaeda, who is wanted as a terrorist by the US.
However, the celebrations have been particularly intense in Iran which, disregarding their Sunni/shia differences, supplied weapons to the Taliban to help get rid of the Americans. This is concerning, because Iran is now liable to be Biden’s next big foreign policy test.
Biden and his team came into office planning to restore the nuclear agreement and lift sanctions against Iran. Given Iranian behaviour in enriching uranium close to weapons grade and suspending some key inspections, the first condition is for them to fall back into compliance with the agreement.
But this would be dependent on the US and Europeans lifting sanctions, as they did before, in the absence of any undertakings by the Iranians to cease their attacks on shipping in the Gulf and on Saudi Arabia, and even on US military and civilian personnel, who they continued to attack through their proxies in Iraq.
Simply renewing the agreement, if achievable, would place a fresh strain on the US’S relations with its allies in the region, who regard the lifting of sanctions, irrespective of continuing Iranian threats to them, as signifying a US “tilt” towards Iran. It also would encounter strong criticism in Congress, where the Biden administration has good reason to fear losing its majority in next year’s mid-term elections.
The eagerness to reach a new accommodation with Iran, including the lifting of sanctions, has been complicated further by the election of the ultra hard-line President Raisi. He is known in Iran as “The Butcher’’, as he was the prosecutor responsible for the deaths of over a hundred thousand supposed enemies of the regime.
Following the Afghan debacle, there is now an issue of US credibility. Biden contends that his allies have not criticised American withdrawal. But their arguments against it, along with those of the US military, were ignored and no one can justify the way in which it has been carried out. Therefore, whether or not the Iran deal is able to be restored – and especially if it is not – US allies, including Israel, will be looking for a greater commitment to help them in dealing with Iranian adventurism, in particular, any more “deniable” attacks on shipping in the Gulf and on targets in Saudi Arabia. The question they will be asking is: will Biden be able to provide it?
The US and its allies have not had much luck with the overseas policy performance of presidents since George W Bush’s invasion of Iraq on what turned out to be false premises in 2003. To avoid further potential fiascos, both Nato and the Middle East allies will be hoping to see a much greater display of resolution by the Biden administration in dealing with Iran than has been the case in Afghanistan.