Council tax rise to pay for social care

‘Double whammy’ for families as town halls search for funds before extra NI cash kicks in

COUNCIL tax bills will have to rise for millions of households next year to pay for social care despite Boris Johnson’s tax raid, ministers fear.

This would mean families facing a “double whammy” of tax rises as the 1.25 percentage point increase in National Insurance is due to come into force at the same time as council tax goes up in April next year.

Town halls are likely to need extra cash as most of the money raised by the NI increase will go to the NHS in the next three years before being diverted to social care in 2024. Experts privately believe council tax will need to rise by an average of at least 5 or 6 per cent next year to help meet the shortfall.

A poll of 10,000 voters by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now for The Daily Telegraph found that the tax rises have sent the Conservative Party’s performance in the polls into a nosedive, down eight percentage points to 37 per cent. Labour is unchanged at 33 per cent, with the Greens up 5 per cent.

If the results were repeated at a general election, Mr Johnson’s majority would be wiped out and 54 Tory MPS would lose their seats, including 21 in “red wall” constituencies won in 2019.

There are now growing concerns among Cabinet ministers that the NI increase is the first in a series of tax rises in the coming years which will harm the Tories’ electoral chances.

One senior minister admitted that the prospect of soaring council tax bills was “a worry”, but added: “At the end of it all, people are going to ask themselves do they want the Government to level with them and be honest, or do they want a government that wrings its hands and does nothing?” Clive Betts, the Labour chairman of the Commons housing, communities and local government committee, said: “Council tax bills will have to rise because there is no other way for councils to be able to pay for social care.

“The people who are going to be hit hardest by the council tax increases are the very people hit hardest by National Insurance increases. It is a double whammy in April.”

Local authorities that provide social care to adults are able to charge an extra 3 per cent on top of council tax bills under legislation brought in five years ago. However, figures show that a third of the councils that can charge the precept – 52 out of 152 – has not so far levied the full amount.

The Government’s NHS and social care plan, published on Tuesday, hinted that the council tax precept would have to increase because of a delay in the £5.4billion earmarked for social care filtering through to local authorities.

The small print of the plan suggested that the cap on the precept could be increased above 3 per cent in the Budget at the end of next month.

A survey of councils by The Telegraph found that many in “red wall” seats were considering increasing the social care precept next year.

Andy Morgan, executive cabinet member for adult social care at Bolton council, where the social care precept is 2.5 per cent, said: “Yes, we would absolutely be looking to increase the precept next year.”

A government spokesman said last night: “We will ensure every council has the resources they need to deliver these reforms with extra money invested next year and £5.4 billion by 2024-25.”

A government source added: “Details of core local government funding, including flexibility for local authorities to set council tax, will be set out at the Spending Review, in the usual way.”

‘The taxraising plans have not given the Government an obvious poll boost at all, but rather the opposite’

BORIS JOHNSON’S manifesto-busting tax rises this week could cost dozens of Tory MPS their seats at the next general election and reverse the Conservative gains made in “red wall” seats in 2019.

A poll for The Daily Telegraph found that Mr Johnson has risked swapping a general election landslide, forecast as recently as May, with a hung parliament after breaching a manifesto pledge and increasing National Insurance to pay for the NHS and social care.

The findings came after it emerged that Cabinet ministers were facing a hostile reception from the Tory party’s grassroots when they returned to their constituencies this weekend because of the tax hikes.

The poll of 10,000 Britons was surveyed by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of this week – before, during and after the Prime Minister’s announcement that he was raising National Insurance contributions by 1.25 percentage points.

It found support for the Tories has slumped by 8 per cent, from 45 per cent at the 2019 election, to just 37 per cent today.

Labour’s showing was unchanged at 33 per cent, with a stronger showing by minor parties such as the Greens (up 5 per cent to 8 per cent) and the Reform party (up 2 per cent to 4 per cent) compared with 2019.

If the same support were reflected at a general election the Tories would win 311 seats, down 54 from the 2019 general election, and well below the crucial number of MPS – 326 – to clinch a House of Commons majority and form a government. The comparison is stark with a similar poll of 14,000 people by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now after the local elections in mid-may which gave the Tories a 43 per cent vote share, a 21 seat increase and a 122-seat landslide majority in a general election.

Regionally, in the new survey, the Tories are predicted to lose seats in the North West, Wales, London and the East Midlands, with Labour picking up 41 seats and winning 244 seats in total.

According to the survey, 54 Conservative MPS would be out of the Commons, including “big beasts” like former party leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith, Scottish Conservatives leader Douglas Ross and Cabinet minister Alister Jack.

Twenty-one of the lost seats would be “red wall” constituencies across the North and Midlands of England that Mr Johnson’s party won from Labour in 2019. All 21 of these would flip back to Labour, the polling shows, while a further seven constituencies in Wales would be won back by Sir Keir Starmer’s party. Among the “red wall” MPS who would lose their seats are Jo Gideon in Stoke-on-trent Central, Richard Holden in North West Durham and Karl Mccartney in Lincoln. Antony Higginbotham, who has a majority of just over 1,300, would lose his seat in Burnley, as would Gedling MP Tom Randall, whose majority is just 679.

The boost that Brexit gave the Tories in northern seats would also wear off if an election were to be held today, the data also suggest.

Heywood and Middleton, where 62.4 per cent of constituents voted for Leave, Blyth Valley (59.8 per cent support) and Leigh (63.4 per cent) would all revert to electing Labour MPS.

Three Conservative seats would also elect their first ever Labour MPS: Cities of London and Westminster, a Conservative seat since 1950; Chipping Barnet, held by the Tories since its creation in 1974; and Aberconwy, which has been held by the Tories since 2010.

The biggest majority lost, according to the forecast, would be Preseli Pembrokeshire, which currently has a Tory majority of 11.9 per cent, and was held by former Cabinet minister Stephen Crabb at the last election.

Last night, it was reported Mr Johnson has ambitions to be Prime Minister for longer than Margaret Thatcher, who was in office for 11 years.

He said in an interview for a forthcoming political book, Broken Heartlands, that it will “take 10 years” for his levelling up agenda to be realised, while a Cabinet minister told The Times: “He wants to go on longer than Thatcher.”

Electoral Calculus’s chief executive, Martin Baxter – who is a guest on this weekend’s edition of Chopper’s Politics podcast – said: “Politics may be resuming after the Covid hiatus, and the Government’s tax-raising plans have not given them an obvious poll boost at all, but rather the opposite.”

However Cabinet ministers tried to brush off the poll findings. One said: “We are mid-term – when has the Government not taken a hit on opinion polls?

“It is not a Labour switch – it is a drift to Reform and the Greens. They don’t see Labour as a viable alternative – people are just saying ‘what is the point in voting for any of them, they will just take my money’."

♦ The Liberal Democrats are looking to target the seats of Tory MPS who voted for the NI rise in an attempt to erode support in the “blue wall”. The party has drawn up a “promise-breaker hit list” of 20 MPS’ constituencies that it will attempt to make gains in this autumn.

‘When has government not taken a hit on polls mid-term?’