US visit thrusts Johnson-biden relationship back into spotlight

‘[On Brexit] Johnson worries that Biden, deep down, is too uncritical in his acceptance of Ireland’s view of everything’

‘Mr Biden is not Mr Trump. This year there have been no tweets to react to, or tantrums to handle. But a new set of complexities exists’

It should be all smiles at the White House tomorrow. Joe Biden and Boris Johnson have not traded barbs this year, and are not expected to do so on Tuesday.

But behind the warm rhetoric and handshakes, questions still remain about their personal and political relationship. Are the two men really that close?

The so-called Aukus deal, the new Australia-uk-us defence pact involving nuclear-powered submarines, provided a boost to the special relationship before the trip. The agreement has left France – long viewed by the UK as its key rival in cementing relations in Washington – in a cold rage, accusing the nations of a “stab in the back”.

But the flourish should not distract from the cracks that remain in the Boris-biden relationship – ones that could well be thrust into the spotlight on this trip.

For one, there are the personal differences. Before his ascent to the Democratic presidential nomination and eventually the US presidency, Mr Biden was candid about his views.

In December 2019, Mr Biden greeted Mr Johnson’s landslide election victory by saying that the Prime Minister was a “physical and emotional clone” of Donald Trump.

The comment reflected the domestic political situation at the time – Mr Biden was fighting rivals who wanted to take the Democratic Party to the Left and he saw Jeremy Corbyn’s defeat as proof of the political folly in that move – but it could resurface this week.

Another open wound within Team Biden, according to one former senior UK diplomatic figure, was a comment Mr Johnson made about Barack Obama – who was US president when Mr Biden was vice-president – during the 2016 EU referendum campaign.

Mr Johnson wrote that Mr Obama’s “part-kenyan” heritage might have explained the removal of a Winston Churchill bust from the Oval Office. It still grates with Obama-biden staffers from that era who are back in the administration now. “Some of them really, really resented it and haven’t forgotten,” the figure said.

On Mr Johnson’s side, there is little public criticism of his counterpart on the record. But two sources who have discussed Brexit with the Prime Minister told The Daily Telegraph recently that he was frustrated at Mr Biden’s willingness to echo Ireland’s line on the Northern Ireland Protocol.

“He worries that Biden, deep down, is too uncritical in his acceptance of Ireland’s view of everything,” said one, of Mr Johnson. “They just listen to Dublin,” said another, of Team Biden.

But Downing Street sources who have been present when Mr Johnson and Mr Biden have spoken push back on any suggestion of personal animus.

“They do get on very well,” said one government figure who has watched them interact. Mr Biden’s folksy charm – a core part of his political image in the US – is said to come across in person. And then there are the policy differences. These should not be exaggerated – both men are closer in policy terms than Mr Trump and Mr Johnson were, despite the common suggestion that the men were similar.

One is on Brexit and its implications. Mr Biden has never hidden his opposition to the UK leaving the EU – he was in Ireland on the day of the result in June 2016 and made clear his regret at the British people’s decision.

There is little doubt that Washington has a different position from London on the protocol, which demands customs checks on goods travelling from Great Britain to Northern Ireland to keep the Irish land border open.

The Government believes it has the right to walk away from those commitments and is threatening to do so because of the impact it has in undermining the integrity of the UK. The Biden administration wants the UK to stick to the deal.

Another linked issue is the UK-US trade agreement. More than five years on from the Brexit vote, the terms have still not been agreed, let alone the time carved out in both chambers of Congress to get the deal into law. Mr Biden’s willingness to prioritise the talks over other reforms he needs Congress to approve remains unclear.

Transport is another point of contention. Mr Biden has retained the travel ban Mr Trump imposed when Covid struck in spring 2020, meaning only US citizens and permanent residents can travel to America from scores of countries. Exemptions can be secured from US embassies, but the process is bureaucratic and uncertain.

The situation is stopping millions of Britons who, in a normal year, fly from the UK to the US from doing so, both for business and for leisure.

Climate change is the topic Whitehall identified as the one on which they could bond with Mr Biden, given that Cop26, the UN Climate Change Conference, is being held in Glasgow in November.

Even here, though, differences exist. There is disquiet in Westminster that the US is yet to provide a promised increase in cash for developing countries to tackle climate change, calling into question if the $100 billiona-year target can be reached.

And then there is Afghanistan. Cabinet ministers and UK diplomats publicly and privately made clear last month that Britain wanted the US to withdraw from the country at a much slower pace than Mr Biden demanded, but were effectively overruled.

It led Mr Johnson to point the finger at the Oval Office for the debacle in Kabul as the Taliban took control, while British politicians across the spectrum condemned Mr Biden’s actions in Parliament.

Mr Biden is not Mr Trump. This year there have been no tweets to react to, new tariffs on UK products or tantrums to handle. But a new set of complexities exists. At its core lies one big question: does Mr Biden really care that much about the UK?