Conservatives are incoherent on energy
Authoritarian regimes are exploiting the fact the West does not have realistic carbon policies
Rising gas prices are altering the international balance of power in favour of dictatorships. We face an expansionist Russia and a communist China, which by its own admission is intent on becoming the dominant economic and military power. Energy supply is no longer a question of fuel poverty; it has geo-political consequences.
From the earliest days of electricity we had plenty of coal to drive power stations, then ample natural gas, which was both cheaper and cleaner. As the flow of North Sea gas reduced we began importing liquified petroleum gas from overseas. We erected a vast number of wind turbines in the sea, and built interconnectors to Europe to balance fluctuating supplies. The past few days have exposed our vulnerability. One of the five active interconnectors has failed, while a prolonged lack of wind has increased demand for gas-fired power stations.
Then there is the question of Nord Stream 1 and 2, the Russian-owned gas pipelines between Russia and Germany. Once the second pipeline is complete, Russia will be able to switch off the lights in Germany and reduce the availability of power in the UK via the interconnectors.
A government strategy, known as Project Defend, aims to prevent foreign takeovers of companies deemed essential to our survival as a free people. Yet while there is occasional talk of food security, energy security has been sorely neglected.
The gas price surge is itself the result of long-term policy failure. The Prime Minister, once a sceptic, now embraces decarbonisation with the zeal of a convert. Fracking could have provided a secure domestic supply of natural gas yet it has – inexplicably – been abandoned. In America, fracking tipped the international balance of power away from the autocracies of the Middle East and Russia. Even if net zero remained the ultimate aim, natural gas offered an intermediate solution, a way to get there without severely disrupting everyday life.
Nuclear should play a major role, yet it too faces serious obstacles. The Hinkley C plant being built by French state company EDF, with Chinese funding, is now in doubt due to security concerns about China’s involvement in further projects. In any event, it is years from completion. Small modular reactors have long been a viable option, and the Government has funded a promising design by Rolls-royce, but they are yet to allow construction to begin. Rolls-royce can develop a production line and deliver reactors to the sites of now-closed nuclear power stations. These could be operating in less than four years, creating thousands of well paid jobs.
Today’s predicament has even deeper roots in the failure of Conservatives to develop a coherent philosophy of freedom. Saying whatever it takes to win elections has left the party bereft of guiding principles. The great thinker, Sir Roger Scruton, wanted conservatives to embrace green philosophy, but without the eco-zealots’ extremism. Tackling waste and pollution are natural instincts for conservatives, mindful as they are of future generations.
Instead, party leaders have fallen into a trap set by extremists. Eco-warriors demand extreme action on a grand scale and champion a controlled world of “perfection”. Yet Scruton favoured personal responsibility and public spiritedness, getting along by mutual adjustment. He did not believe everything must be personal and local; solutions on a national scale might be possible. He discussed, for example, seeding clouds to block heat from the sun as one such potentially viable answer. But where is this kind of ingenuity – or moderation – in the Conservative Party today?
When Greta Thunberg said in 2019, “I want you to panic, I want you to act as if the house was on fire”, she preached the gospel of authoritarians who want people to be forced to change their lives, who believe no one should get off lightly via bridge fuels such as natural gas, or local measures. Change must hurt. This gospel may seem anathema to conservatism, but it has been extraordinarily influential.
The most sophisticated totalitarian autocracy in human history, the Chinese Communist Party, sees clearly what is at stake. Its leaders will decarbonise, but only after the West has committed economic suicide.