Xi is employing distraction tactics, just like Putin did with Crimea

Taiwan may be one third the area of England but Chinese aggression over the lush, tropical island threatens to throw the world into disarray, risking a repeat of 2014 when Russia illegally annexed Crimea in a show of force under Vladimir Putin.

Much like President Putin, Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party leader, is betting his swagger will play well at home, shoring up nationalist sentiment as he prepares to keep tight hold of the reins for another five-year term – and likely even longer.

Mr Xi has spent his decade at the top consolidating power, jailing political rivals and dissidents. So orders from him – as chairman of the Central Military Commission – to buzz Taiwan with 150 warplanes in recent days come from a position of strength.

Still, like Mr Putin in 2014, the Chinese leader has problems at home, and he could use a distraction. The Chinese economy is being squeezed by a growth transition, demographics concerns, and of course, the unexpected challenge of the coronavirus pandemic.

While the world’s second-largest economy largely keeps chugging along, one of Mr Xi’s tasks pressing forward will be to ensure that remains the case. For decades, the Communist Party has bet its nation of 1.4 billion people would forego individual freedoms in exchange for soaring prosperity. So increasing belligerence over Taiwan is low-hanging fruit – a nationalistic focal point to rally the public while it grapples with a couple of bumps on the domestic front – with the added bonus that it lets China take the West to task.

The same thinking belies skirmishes along the China-india border and creeping incursions in the South China Sea. All aim to burnish the party’s credentials. After celebrating its centenary in July, Mr Xi is paving the way for the next 100 years.

Some watchers have privately mused that Mr Xi wants to see his portrait replace Chairman Mao’s at Tiananmen Gate in the heart of Beijing.

Taiwan is not Crimea. While the former has said it will do everything it can to resist Chinese invasion, Russian troops got a red-carpet welcome when they took the Ukrainian peninsula, even if that sentiment has since faded.

But the effects for the authoritarian countries’ leaders could be similar.

Mr Putin’s approval ratings soared to record highs after the annexation of Crimea, and he most likely consolidated his grip on power for another decade.

What better way for Mr Xi to cement a place in history than to “take back” Taiwan?