Fertility rate drops to lowest level in 80 years

Data reflect trend towards smaller family sizes and a preference for starting families later in life

THE fertility rate has fallen to its lowest level since records began in 1938, with women giving birth, on average, to 1.5 children each.

The Office for National Statistics said the decline has been caused by improved access to contraception, women choosing to have fewer babies and difficulties conceiving experienced by women who delay getting pregnant beyond their most fertile years.

The data show that in 2020 the total fertility rate (TFR) for England and Wales fell to 1.58 children per woman, the lowest since records began in 1938 (when the rate was 1.84).

Today, the TFR is 4.2 per cent lower than 2019 and 3.1 per cent lower than the previous record low of 1.63 in 2001.

The TFR is the average number of children that women would be expected to bear each calendar year if they were in line with fertility rates associated with their age group.

The British Pregnancy Advisory Service said the data reflected trends towards later motherhood and smaller family sizes. “Women are choosing to delay having children and have smaller families – these include the desire to progress at work, an awareness of the ‘motherhood pay penalty’ and the everincreasing cost of raising a child,” it said. “It may well be hardship and economic uncertainty due to the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated these trends.”

The ONS data also revealed that there were 613,936 live births in England and Wales in 2020, a decrease of 4.1 per cent from 2019.

Furthermore, researchers found that fertility rates decreased across all age groups. The average age of mothers at childbirth remained 30.7 years – the same as 2019 – after increasing gradually since 1973. Fertility rates decreased across all age groups, including for women aged 40 years and over, for the first time since 2013 (from 16.5 to 16.0 live births per 1,000 women from 2019 to 2020).

Fertility rates for those aged 40-plus had been increasing since the late 1970s. For women aged 35 to 39, the rate was 59.8 live births per 1,000 women – down from 61.9 the previous year.

For women aged 30 to 34 the rate fell from 104.7 to 102.5, for those aged 25 to 29 it fell from 88.3 to 84.6, for women aged 20 to 24 from 48.4 to 44.8 and for women under 20 from 11.2 to 10.0. The ONS stressed, however, that birth registration services had been disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic.

Its researchers said: “There are small differences between the published provisional data and our usual annual births data but the main messages remain unchanged, with the total number of births continuing the decrease that we have seen in recent years.”

The 2020 birth registrations data are likely to be a small underestimate; and missing date will be included in its 2021 births release, ONS added.

Stillbirth data for 2020 identified 2,371 such births in England and Wales – six per cent fewer than in 2019 – and the lowest number recorded since records began in 1927.

For a fourth consecutive year, the stillbirth rate in England and Wales fell to a record low: 3.8 stillbirths per 1,000 total births; down from 3.9 stillbirths per 1,000 total births in 2019.