Booster rollout ‘too slow’
Fears raised for vulnerable in winter with millions waiting to receive third dose
THE Covid booster programme is moving too slowly to protect the most vulnerable, experts have warned, as figures show that less than half of those eligible have received the jab.
Estimates seen by The Daily Telegraph show that 22 million people will be ready for their third dose by middecember, yet at current rates the programme to vaccinate those most at risk will not be completed until the end of January. Yesterday, Downing Street promised to “step up communications” as it emerged that just 3.7 million of the 8.5 million at-risk people who had their second jab at least six months ago have had their third dose.
It means there are 4.8 million people in danger from waning immunity. Currently, people who are eligible for a third dose must wait until they are contacted by the NHS before booking a jab.
John Roberts of the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group (ARG), who calculated the figures based on latest NHS England booster figures and historical vaccination data, said: “At the start of the booster campaign, the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care stated that the aim was to protect the most vulnerable to Covid-19 as we head into the autumn and winter months.
“But, at the current rate, it’s likely to be towards the end of January before the approximately 22 million that fall into the most vulnerable groups receive the booster. With case numbers very high and still rising, and admissions to hospital also rising again, it’s clear that accelerating the booster rollout is vital to reduce the pressure on health services and minimise Covid-related deaths this autumn and winter.”
Experts blamed the slowdown on the growing complexity of the Covid vaccination programme – which is now dealing with school children and extra doses for immunocompromised people – as well as the rollout of the flu jab.
At the peak of England’s Covid vaccine rollout more than 500,000 doses were being administered a day, but just 99,000 booster shots were reported in England yesterday, and the current daily average for other jabs has fallen to around 50,000.
The booster programme is working its way through nine priority groups starting with over-80s, care home residents, front-line health workers and the clinically vulnerable. The ARG warned there were two million people becoming eligible each week, yet just 1.3 million jabs were being administered weekly, meaning the backlog is growing. The gap between a second jab and booster is concerning because studies have shown that immunity continues to drop over time.
Britain recorded 49,156 new cases yesterday, a rise of 16 per cent in a week.
Prof Andrew Hayward, epidemiologist and government adviser, of University College London, said there was “huge potential for the NHS to come under a lot of pressure”. He said waning immunity was “probably part of ” the reason infections are currently high.
There were more than 1,400 Covidrelated deaths in the past four weeks in over-80s and of the 2.2 million people over 80 who are eligible for a booster fewer than 1.2 million have had the jab.
Downing Street said the NHS was doing “everything possible” to contact people eligible for a third jab or booster shot.
Prof Adam Finn, professor of paediatrics at the University of Bristol, said the rollout was growing more complex. “Previously it was a straightforward matter of opening large centres and getting people in by age groups,” he said. “Now we have multiple different groups being offered vaccines. They are really difficult patients to identify and to sculpt the programme.”
NHS England said its own calculations showed that 6 million people were currently eligible for a booster and 4.2million had already been invited for the jab. An NHS spokesman said: “Actually, the NHS has delivered more than three million boosters in less than a month and at a faster rate than in Dec 2020.” NHS England said it did not recognise Mr Roberts’s figures and said its own were based on NHS Digital records.
Covid deaths and hospitalisations, while significantly below the levels seen during the worst of the pandemic last winter, are higher than those in other European countries. France yesterday registered an additional five fatalities from the disease, whereas the UK had 57. Germany, with a larger population, had 10 deaths. There may be methodological explanations for these differences or other factors are at play, such as poorer health outcomes, a greater unwillingness to receive the jab within certain communities or greater indoor mingling. But increasingly it seems we may be a victim of the early success of the UK’S vaccine programme. Over time the immunity provided by the jabs wanes as has been seen in countries that were in the vanguard of vaccination such as Israel.
Since the most vulnerable were given priority in this country they are also the most likely to see lowering levels of protection as time advances. Many received their first and second doses more than six months ago and may well now be experiencing a reduction in immunity. This was why the Government established very early on that a booster vaccine would be needed this autumn to top up the protective levels, and yet this is not receiving anything like the priority attached to the initial roll-out.
Everyone over 50 and people with clinical vulnerabilities are supposedly eligible for a booster but need to wait to be called up. NHS figures indicate that of the 2.2 million people over 80 who had a second jab more than six months ago, fewer than 1.2 million have had the booster. Fewer than half the people who have compromised immune systems and who should have been contacted for a booster have actually been called in, according to patient charities. Many complain that they are struggling to obtain information about when they might be able to receive a booster.
What is going on here? If the booster programme is as important as the Government says it is, then a great deal more effort and urgency is needed to ensure it is getting to the people who need it most. Hospitalisations and pressure on the NHS will be a key metric in deciding whether to reimpose lockdown measures – the so-called Plan B – as winter advances. The slowness of the booster roll-out risks undoing much of the success of the initial phase of the vaccination programme. Sajid Javid, the Health Secretary, needs to grip this now.