Covid cases to slump in winter, say scientists
Modelling seen by the Government predicts a fall in infections without implementing Plan B
‘At the moment the data do not suggest that we should be immediately moving to Plan B’
COVID cases will plummet in November even without Plan B, modelling seen by the Government suggests.
Ministers are thought to be holding back from introducing restrictions such as compulsory face masks, working from home and vaccine passports, after seeing projections from several groups that show infections declining rapidly within weeks, The Daily Telegraph understands.
One model, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), suggests that cases will soon peak, before falling steeply in the winter months, even without the additional restrictions.
The Telegraph understands that other unpublished models seen by the Government have also shown similar imminent drops, with experts indicating that cases could fall to around 5,000 cases a day before Christmas.
John Edmunds, professor in the centre for the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases at LSHTM and a member of Sage and the sub-group SPIM, said: “When we were doing the work about two weeks ago, the Health Secretary had made it very clear that the Government was not planning to introduce Plan B in the near future.
“Our model was projecting that cases would start to decline some time in the autumn.
“However, the model also suggests that cases may start to climb again in the spring due to a combination of waning immunity and increased contacts.”
Much of the current wave is being driven by high case rates in children, and scientific sources close to the Government expect the “children’s epidemic” to run out of steam soon, as immunity in youngsters increases, both through infection and vaccination.
The October half term, which began for many schools today, is also expected to help bring down case numbers.
Scientists believe that the virus is close to reaching “endemic equilibrium” and recent oscillations in case rates will soon settle down.
Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, yesterday ruled out the imminent implementation of additional restrictions as laid out in the government’s Autumn and Winter Plan. “We’re monitoring everything, but at the moment the data do not suggest that we should be immediately moving to Plan B, but of course we will keep an eye on that and the plans are ready,” Mr Sunak told BBC One’s The Andrew Marr Show.
Maggie Throup, the vaccines minister, also said Plan A was working and said the situation was “where we need to be”.
The Government is coming under increasing pressure to implement Plan B after daily cases rose beyond 50,000 last week, and hospital admissions increased to more than 1,000.
Labour said yesterday it now backed the immediate reintroduction of restrictions, despite Sir Keir Starmer saying on Thursday that the debate over which plan to follow was the “wrong focus”.
Prof Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said case numbers and death rates were currently “unacceptable” and advised people to “take matters into your own hands”, telling BBC Breakfast on Saturday: “Don’t wait, necessarily, for government policy.”
However, yesterday, infections dropped below 40,000 for the first time in 12 days, to 39,962 and deaths dropped to 72.
Epidemiologists from LSHTM are projecting a smaller spring wave and so have modelled the impact of Plan B restrictions in April.
But they found even if face coverings, work from home and vaccine certificates were introduced in the spring, it would only serve to delay deaths until the following autumn.
Prof Edmunds said Plan B could still be useful next year “as it buys you time” to increase vaccination uptake, or introduce new drugs, but warned the effect would not prevent a later outbreak.
“If you implement non-pharmacutical interventions temporarily and then lift them then their main effect is to delay any outbreak. You can see this most clearly in the scenario when we implement all of the measures.”
Experts said if the models were correct, then it would do little good to bring in restrictions at this stage, and
would be better for long-term immunity to allow the virus to spread.
Paul Hunter, professor in medicine, at the University of East Anglia, said: “There are times when delaying is really valuable, but there comes a point when restrictions have no value because you’ve got as much protection as you’re going to get, so you end up putting it off to a point where you lose immunity.
“What the modelling suggests is that even without Plan B we should expect to see case numbers falling quite rapidly in the next few weeks.
“If correct, Christmas should see some of the lowest number of cases of Covid since late May/early June even without further restrictions.
“If it’s right then this issue about whether we should be locking down is immaterial. We shouldn’t and the Government is doing the right thing.”
“[Covid] will become another cause for the common cold,” added Prof Hunter.
“Once you’ve been vaccinated and had the infection a couple of times, it will almost always be asymptomatic or have symptoms like a cold.”
Downing Street has insisted there is still spare capacity in the NHS and restrictions will only be activated if it comes under “significant pressure”.
Mr Sunak also said a return of the furlough scheme was “not on the cards”, indicating that there would not be a lockdown that required the economy to shut down, adding the vaccine rollout was the “best line of defence” against more restrictions.
Prof Graham Medley, the SPI-M chairman, said: “We still don’t know how the booster programme will actually work out, but if it gets enough vaccines into enough people fast enough then it’s a very strong barrier.”