Falling hospitalisation and death rates bode well for restriction-free Christmas

HOPES for a restriction-free Christmas have received a boost after it emerged the scientists advising the Government believe it is unlikely Covid hospitalisations will reach the same level as they did in January 2021 during the peak of the winter wave.

Official documents from SPI-M, the modelling sub-committee of Sage, reveal that, unless a dangerous new variant emerges, only an unprecedented spike in transmission as well as repeated waning of immunity from vaccines will lead to hospitalisations akin to January.

Vaccine-conferred immunity does decline over time but the booster regime, which continues to pick up pace with more than 14million people now having received a third jab, means there will not be a large population of unprotected vulnerable people over the festive period.

As for “a rapid increase in transmission rates”, that would only come about by a significant change in behaviour, and with many people now back to prepandemic living routines, that too seems unlikely. The likelihood of both these things transpiring at the same time is extremely slim.

Another variant is the only factor that could upset this equation, according to Sage, but ongoing surveillance from the UK Health Security Agency has yet to identify a more potent form of the coronavirus than the delta variant.

Only one has garnered attention recently, called AY.4.2, but even this is thought to be only marginally more transmissible and no more potent than the delta variant.

Fresh modelling released yesterday also revealed Sage expects hospitalisations and deaths to decline as we head into December.

Graphs show that in the month between Nov 8 and Dec 5, hospitalisations and deaths will both drop by roughly a third.

Their models indicate that hospitalisations in England will drop to around 500 a day by early December, while deaths will dip below 100.