After fatigue over ‘boy who cried wolf ’ is this the one with real teeth?

THE omicron coronavirus variant, officially called B.1.1.529, is the latest in a long line of new forms of SARSCOV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19.

Alpha was the first, which sprung up in Kent late last year and led to the effective cancellation of Christmas.

Alpha spread rapidly owing to a handful of mutations which meant it was more adept at entering human cells than its predecessor, the original Wuhan form of the virus.

It had no mutations that reduced the effectiveness of antibodies or made it more deadly but it was around 50 per cent more transmissible than the original virus. Beta was just the second variant deemed worthy of a Greek letter and its unique feature was a mutation called K417N which, unlike alpha, did help it dodge antibodies made by vaccines.

Because of the damage caused by alpha, when the next variant emerged in South Africa alongside reports that it was able to evade vaccines, there was widespread concern. At the start of the year, scientists in the UK called for a travel ban. There was panic among some academics that beta would derail the vaccine rollout.

But it never gained traction and faded from consciousness because it was outcompeted by alpha.

Testing was deployed across the UK to contain its spread. And yet, despite all the furore, it never took hold in a meaningful way, failing to account for more than one per cent of all cases at any point. Gamma, also known as P.1 which was found in Brazil, was the next to pop up on the variant radar.

This shared a mutation (N501Y), nicknamed Nelly, with alpha and beta, and another mutation (E484K), colloquially dubbed Eeek, with beta.

The former increases transmissibility and infectivity, while the latter helps the virus slip past the body’s immune defences. This combination again caused concern.

One academic wrote an article in the British Medical Journal in April claiming “the newly identified Brazilian variant (P.1) is 1.4-2.2 times more transmissible than previous variants... indicating that it may reach other corners of the world soon if the flights are not suspended immediately.” But, just like beta, these concerns failed to materialise as it could not outcompete alpha.

Next to emerge was delta which was spotted in India and, until now, was the variant most feared by scientists.

But, at the time, there was an element of the boy who cried wolf and variant fear-mongering fatigue among the public.

The variant seen in India had a unique assortment of mutations which meant it was not quite as good at dodging antibodies as beta, but better at infecting than the then-ubiquitous alpha variant. This infectivity made delta at least 50 per cent more contagious than alpha, and alpha itself was 50 per cent more infectious than the original Wuhan virus.

It reached the UK in late March, and by the end of June accounted for 99 per cent of all cases.

But since delta, there have been eight new Greek letters dished out to variants found all over the world.

Barely a whisper has been heard about these variants and none have made a dent in delta’s dominance.

While these eight variants caused precious few ripples, a so-called delta-plus variant raised alarm because it had the infectivity of delta, but also accrued K417N, the vaccine-dodging mutation found in beta. But even this failed to change the course of the pandemic and soon faded from view.

Only two variants have had a lasting impact on the pandemic, but the question now is whether the 13th will be the third to make its mark, or another addition to a long list of duds.