Tory ‘vibes not good’ as Reform cuts majority
Despite by-election win, senior MPS fear party may lose North Shropshire seat as threat from Tice grows
‘Some of the ministers are doing fantastically, but others are not pulling their weight’
CONSERVATIVE MPS fear they could lose a by-election to replace Owen Paterson in North Shropshire, after Richard Tice’s Reform UK split the vote in Old Bexley and Sidcup.
MPS told The Daily Telegraph that “the vibes coming back” from the seat are “not good”, ahead of a vote there on Dec 16.
A senior Conservative source said some members of Boris Johnson’s Cabinet were “not pulling their weight” on the doorstep in the constituency, while others worried that a Bexley campaign team run by Justin Tomlinson, the Tory deputy party chairman, was switching its focus to North Shropshire too late.
Jitters about the vote to replace Mr Paterson, who held a majority of almost 23,000 votes, come after the Conservatives’ majority was reduced from 19,000 to less than 5,000 in Old Bexley and Sidcup on Thursday.
The Tory candidate Louie French was elected to replace the late MP James Brokenshire after a low turnout of just 34 per cent.
In his victory speech yesterday morning, Mr French paid tribute to Mr Brokenshire’s political career and wore his 2019 election rosette to the count.
“He was a fantastic man, and I’m very sad about the loss of his life. I know that this is what he would have wanted tonight,” he said.
Mr Tice, the leader of Reform UK, secured 6.5 per cent of the vote and finished third, ahead of a Liberal Democrat candidate who lost her deposit.
Polling for The Daily Telegraph by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now has found that Mr Tice could deprive Mr Johnson of an overall majority at the next election if support for his party continues.
MRP analysis, which is used to project a national poll result into seats at a theoretical general election, shows the Conservatives would be 38 seats short of a majority if a snap election was called now.
Mr Johnson’s party would win 288 seats, a loss of 77 MPS compared with the 2019 result.
That could allow Sir Keir Starmer, who would win 271 seats, the chance to form a government with the SNP, the research shows.
But if Reform UK was excluded from the election, Mr Johnson would win an eight-seat majority – holding on to power with a reduced majority.
Martin Baxter, who conducted the poll, said the research showed the Prime Minister must regain control of the centre-right in British politics or risk losing the next election.
“The Conservatives at the moment are nowhere near an 80-seat majority,” he said. “The issue right now is, are they going to win or lose?
“Boris Johnson was really successful last time in squeezing down the other Right-wing parties and unifying the Right-of-centre vote.
“That was the Conservatives’ secret weapon last time. If they lose that weapon, that is bad for them.”
Today’s poll shows the Conservatives have lost nine points since May, and are one point ahead of Labour, on 36 points compared to Sir Keir’s 35.
Tory sources cited the recent rise in fatal migrant crossings in the Channel, an increase in the cost of fuel and energy, and a row over sleaze in Westminster as reasons for a drop in support for their party.
Concerns have also been raised about the quality of the Tories’ campaign in North Shropshire, while MPS heaped praise on Mr Tomlinson, who ran the operation for Mr French in Old Bexley and Sidcup.
“Bexley was the first by-election with [Mr Tomlinson] in charge – he set the pace, dictated strategy,” one MP said.
But with memories of less well-run campaigns looming large, backbenchers are concerned his “bloody good result” can’t be replicated. “The problem is there are too many [by-elections] at the same time – he can’t be everywhere,” one former minister said.
A senior party source said that, to win the seat, the Conservatives must counter a strong Liberal Democrat presence by emphasising the Government’s action on illegal migration and Covid.
“They have got to get more positive communication of what the Government is doing,” the source said. “Some of the ministers are doing fantastically, but others are not pulling their weight.”