Defence policy is dictated by ‘woolly thinking’ on cyber warfare
BRITAIN’S defence policy is based on “over-simplified” hype about cyber warfare, experts have claimed.
Dr Jack Watling and Justin Bronk, research fellows at Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), say “damaging narratives” are too easily accepted as fact. Such assumptions quickly come to “dominate thinking at the highest levels of UK defence policy,” they have said.
In Necessary Heresies, out today, they warn of “institutional blindness”. Specialist
advice is overlooked or misinterpreted as decision-makers shape policy based on their own understanding of briefings given by subject matter experts, the book argues.
“Crucial nuances and practical constraints are lost in translation. This tendency is exacerbated by a natural inclination to over-hype the potential for novel technologies or strategies to provide transformative effects.” The authors argue that future war is unlikely to be dominated by “grey zone” attacks short of out and out armed conflict. The dangers of so-called “grey zone” operations, characterised by cyber attacks, assassinations, political interference and disinformation, were cited by the former Chief of the Defence Staff (CDS), Gen Sir Nick Carter, as the shape of future warfare.
The authors say such woolly thinking is an “intellectual dustbin” that confuses the true nature of conflict.
They cited Gen Carter’s comments during the CDS Rusi lecture, in December 2020, that “our rivals seek to win without resorting to war”. He said “arm’s length” tools like drones and mercenaries would be used more often as they provided “deniability and strategic ambiguity – thus enabling intervention without the risk of entanglement”.
The authors say Gen Carter’s ideas “not only lack crucial nuance and are unsound, but also produce “potentially harmful distortionary effects throughout defence”. The book challenges “misleading narratives before they drive acquisition and force-design decisions that undermine the British Armed Forces”. It argues that “through years of repetition, narratives about the rapidly changing character of warfare and the transformative effects of novel technologies have become akin to gospel truths, enshrined in policy documents”.
Defence policy planning is hampered by “received wisdom” the authors suggest. They write : “In areas such as cyber warfare, space or novel weapons systems, deep subject matter expertise is required to understand the benefits and limitations. Incompatible demands for efficiency savings and equipment modernisation lead to defence planners seeking ‘silver bullet solutions’... As such, the narratives that end up shaping much of the ‘coal-face’ work in defence are not... (usually) nuanced.
An MOD spokesman said: “With £24billion investment over the next four years, the Armed Forces will be modernised to meet future threats.
“The Integrated Review, backed by the largest investment in Defence since the Cold War, is delivering a force fit to meet the challenges posed by a more uncertain world, not battles of the past.”