‘The West must show unanimity, or Putin will invade Ukraine’
Moscow will be tempted to attack unless Europe sends a clear signal, says minister
Vladimir Putin will be emboldened to invade Ukraine if EU countries do not sign up to a package of sanctions to deter Russia, the Ukrainian foreign minister warned.
Dmytro Kuleba said President Putin’s goal was to “destroy Ukraine” and that he would be more tempted to resort to military action if Western allies did not quickly find agreement on punitive measures.
In a warning against a possible repeat of Russia’s shutdown of the Malaysian airlines flight MH17 over Donbas, he said: “The point that I’m making, and I made it to some of my colleagues from the European Union: I did not want you to find yourself in a situation similar to 2014, when pictures of dead bodies and of heinous crimes leave you no choice. If the West does not show unanimity now, Putin will be more tempted to resort to war.”
Joe Biden this week told Mr Putin to expect “strong economic and other measures in the event of military escalation”. Britain backs the plans. But Mr Kuleba said key European allies were hesitating in signing up to a unified approach.
“One of the goals that the Biden administration and the UK Government set for themselves is to ensure transatlantic unity in action against Putin,” he said.
“That implies that until the EU and its key capitals align themselves with a certain line of action, it would be premature to go into specifics.”
Russia has massed about 100,000 troops near its border with Ukraine. The Kremlin has denied planning an attack, but has also signalled that it will go to war unless the West and Ukraine concede to a list of demands.
Mr Putin told Mr Biden during a video call on Tuesday that Russia wanted guarantees that Nato would not expand further east or deploy weapons systems in countries neighbouring Russia. Liz Truss, the Foreign Secretary, on Wednesday warned of “huge costs” if the invasion goes forward but did not give details.
Jake Sullivan, Mr Biden’s national security adviser, said that the measures would include some “we were not prepared to do in 2014” when Russia annexed Crimea and began a war in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.
Possible sanctions on the table are believed to include cutting Russia off from the SWIFT system for international financial transactions, targeting Russian state banks and going after Russian state debt.
US officials said on Wednesday that they had an understanding with Germany to cancel the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline if Russia invaded Ukraine.
Mr Kuleba said that he believed never-before-seen sanctions were on the table but declined to say which measures Europeans were hesitant about. But he also warned that the West must be careful about how the discussion of sanctions is framed in case it effectively rewards Russia for aggression. “When I hear messages saying Nord Stream 2 will be stopped if Russia attacks, I’m like, ‘Whoa, whoa, hold your horses’. ‘Let’s give them bloody Nord Stream 2 and they will not attack you?’ – this is not the scenario that we should fall into,” he said.
Asked if Moscow had a plan of how to respond to potential sanctions, Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said Russia “will do everything to stand up for its own interests”.
Fears that the crisis could escalate heightened when Russia’s top security agency said a Ukrainian warship was heading towards the Kerch Strait, a disputed seaway between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. According to the Federal Security Services (FSB) the Ukrainian Navy command ship, the Donbas, had ignored instructions to reverse course.the strait has been under Russian control since it was annexed in 2014.
Sergey Ryabkov, the Russian deputy foreign minister, lamented yesterday that the US “has nothing left in its foreign policy toolbox other than blackmail, threats and sanctions”.
Mr Kuleba said the Western response was stronger than during an invasion scare in the spring and more unified than when Russia attacked Ukraine in 2014, and praised Germany and France’s strong recent statements condemning Russian actions. He denied Kyiv had been cut out of talks after Mr Biden said he would consult with Nato allies about Mr Putin’s complaints about Nato expansion and ruled out taking military action against Russia in the event of an invasion. Mr Biden yesterday phoned Volodymyr Zelensky, president of Ukraine, ahead of calls to the Bucharest Nine countries on the eastern edge of Nato. He pledged “additional military capabilities” would be deployed in the region, although he ruled out sending forces to Ukraine.
Mr Kuleba said it was asking allies for a three-stage deterrence package designed to persuade the Kremlin the costs of invasion were unacceptable, including political support, economic sanctions and military kit that would help Ukraine’s army inflict heavy casualties on the invaders.
He said Ukraine stood by the 2015 Minsk agreement, despite a deadlock with Moscow over its implementation, and believed if there was will in Russia to resolve the conflict in Donbas, progress could be made.