When Major faced the decision over staying or going, he stayed – and it led to a terrible defeat
Why look in the crystal ball when you can read the book, was Aneurin Bevan’s wise advice years ago. That is exactly what we should do amid the current storm engulfing Westminster, by considering whether the disastrous defeat John Major suffered in 1997, after he had secured victory for the Tories in 1992, holds any lessons for the Tory backbenchers.
If these backbenchers should learn anything from the Major years, during which I was secretary of state for national heritage, it is that the Tory party would do well to get rid of a leader whose day is done.
Can it ever be glad confident morning again for Boris, after his reputation has been so trashed, especially over his respect – or lack of it – for the truth? He’s getting a bit like Harold Wilson, whose reputation as a liar led to all manner of jokes; “How can you tell when Harold Wilson is lying?” “His lips move.” Once a prime minister becomes a laughing stock, the road to the cliff marked oblivion is too clearly signposted to ignore.
John Major and Boris Johnson seem an unlikely pairing, but not really. Both were bigger than the game for a brief but significant period, pulling off difficult-to-predict election victories. Faced with Neil Kinnock’s risible imitation of a capering ape at that notorious election rally just before the 1992 poll, the voters took refuge in decent, straightforward, grey but likeable John Major.
Similarly, the voters were attracted to the different charms of Boris Johnson, whose rock star appeal gave his party an unexpected majority of 80, allowing him to “get Brexit done”, even if not much else was achieved.
John Major soon ran out of road as Tony Blair replaced Kinnock, just as Keir Starmer, boring and lawyer-like though he may be, is a very different proposition to Jeremy Corbyn. If Major had gone mid-term, his reputation would have stood high. And had he been replaced by, say, Michael Heseltine, the 1997 election could have been a much closer-run thing.
Instead, Major became embittered by “the bastards”. He resubmitted his leadership to the test (something Boris would be crazy to do), and stumbled on to a horrendous defeat, because trying to get anyone, let alone a prime minister, to change their entire personality is an impossible task.
Major couldn’t manage it, and nor will Johnson, since his personality is at the core of his political existence. Once you get beneath the Prime Minister’s engaging, jovial charisma, what else has he got to offer? A solid grounding in policy? Hardly. A capability to lead the country through the cost-of-living crisis the country is about to endure? Not much evidence of that, I’m afraid.
If Johnson stays, the next few months will test his capabilities to breaking point and he has no fundamental beliefs to fall back on. He is his own triumphalist, but is Johnson really a Tory? This is the question MPS will ask as they consider what comes next. We don’t yet have evidence he is.