Putin’s slip in the mud shows value of weather reports
Reports this week that an unseasonably warm winter has delayed a Russian invasion of Ukraine – as the ground is muddy instead of frozen solid – demonstrate the value military commanders place on strategising the weather.
Joe Biden, the US President, is also reported to have hired meteorologists to try to predict what his Russian counterpart’s next move might be with the 100,000 or so troops and heavy weaponry he has amassed at the border in recent months.
No matter the size of the armies at their disposal, over the centuries generals have found they ignore the vagaries of the weather at their peril.
For example, during the Battle of Inkerman in November 1854, in the Crimean war, a thick fog helped British troops hold out against a far larger Russian army. However, later that month the weather turned against the Allied forces, with a fierce storm devastating fleets and supply lines.
A few decades earlier, Napoleon’s retreat from Moscow, in 1812, was in part due to the bitter Russian winter, with his forces ravaged by hunger and cold. “The winter was our disaster,” he later wrote. “We became the victims of Russia’s climate.”
During the Second World War, Met Office forecasters were attached to RAF and Army units globally to provide forecasts before launching offensives against the enemy.
The D-day landings of 1944 were delayed by 24 hours owing to a storm blowing in. Gp Capt James Martin Stagg, the chief meteorological adviser to the Allies, not only predicted a storm on June 5 1944, but also that the weather would break for long enough the following day to allow Operation Overlord to go ahead.
For anyone around the country on manoeuvres this weekend, the weather is looking largely settled, dry and bright. Except for the storm clouds over No 10, that is.