Covid cases plunge towards levels that triggered Plan B

COVID cases are approaching levels lower than when “Plan B” was triggered, with data increasingly showing that Britain is over the worst.

On Sunday, cases fell to 70,924, the lowest since mid-december, before rising to 84,429 yesterday in the usual increase at the start of the week.

However it marks a 42 per cent decline since the previous Monday.

If the current downward trajectory continues, then Britain should fall to around 50,000 cases later this week, the same level as when Boris Johnson announced restrictions on Dec 8.

The number of tests coming back positive has also started to fall – from a high of 32.3 per cent on Jan 4 to 26 per cent on Jan 11 – showing that it is a true decline rather than a lack of testing capacity, as some have claimed.

The Office for National Statistics infection survey is also mirroring recent falls.

Data show that the number of people currently requiring mechanical ventilation has dropped to 746 as of Jan 13, the lowest it has been since Nov 10.

And the number of patients in hospital with Covid in Britain has now declined to 19,345 after peaking on Jan 10 at 19,906.

Latest figures show that 44 per cent of people currently in hospital in England are incidental cases, having been admitted for a different reason, and testing positive on arrival or shortly afterwards. There are also signs that admissions are now levelling off.

England’s “Plan B” restrictions are due to expire on Jan 26, and ministers are hoping they will not need to be renewed.

Prof Mike Tildesley, from the University of Warwick and a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modelling group (SPI-M), said case figures are “cautiously good news” and he hoped the country may have a “flu-type” relationship with the virus by next winter.

Prof Tildesley told BBC Breakfast “it does look like across the whole of the country cases do seem to be falling”, adding: “Hospital admissions are still relatively high, albeit there is some evidence that maybe they’re plateauing or possibly going down in London, which is cautiously good news.”

Downing Street said there were “encouraging signs” in the data.

Dr David Nabarro, a World Health Organisation special envoy for Covid19, told Sky News that there is “light at the end of the tunnel” for the UK.