Deaths drop as winter temperatures rise

Half a million fewer people have died from conditions associated with the cold in the past 20 years

THE warming climate has led to half a million fewer deaths in England and Wales resulting from cold weather, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest.

Between 2001 and 2020, there was a decrease of 555,103 deaths associated with warm or cold temperature – about 27,000 a year – with the vast majority of the fall (509,555) the result of fewer people dying from the cold.

The Met Office has found that the period 1991 to 2020 was 0.9 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1961 to 1990 average, while the 10 warmest years recorded have occurred since 2002.

To calculate what impact the changing temperature had on deaths, the ONS looked at how temperatures had affected health conditions between 1990 and 2000, and calculated the change in the following two decades.

There were 108,722 extra hospitalisations associated with warm days over the period, but these did not lead to more deaths, the figures show.

The ONS said the findings confirmed that climate change was affecting health in England and Wales, but Britain’s temperate climate meant that the impact on deaths was limited and much of the health risk could be alleviated.

They said that improved insulation, the winter fuel allowance, and flu jabs may have already have helped lower the cold weather deaths.

Commenting on the findings, Myer Glickman, of the ONS, said: “Our findings, looking at change between 2001 and 2020, show an increase in hospital admissions, but a decrease in deaths due to rising average temperatures in the UK – the latter at least partly because of warmer winters.

“This is not surprising given our existing cool to temperate climate, but has to be seen in the context of strong evidence that the future effects of climate change will include prolonged heatwaves, flooding and other extreme events with consequent impacts on health.”

Research has consistently shown that cold weather is far more lethal than hot weather. A study in The Lancet in 2015, looking at 384 locations in 13 countries including the UK, Australia, the United States and Spain, found that cold weather causes 17 times as many deaths as warm weather.

Out of 74million deaths, 7.7 per cent were attributable to weather conditions, but 7.2 per cent were because of the cold and just 0.46 were because of warm days.

Cold weather can trigger respiratory and heart conditions, worsen dementia symptoms and depression, cause injuries from slips, trips and falls, and increase car accidents.

The ONS study found that the biggest impact on mortality declines had come from falls in respiratory deaths, with 336,882 fewer deaths in the 20-year period compared with previous years.

There were also 270,280 fewer cardiovascular deaths and more than 100,000 fewer deaths from dementia, with some conditions overlapping.

In contrast, warmer weather in Britain rarely reaches the kind of temperatures that cause direct heat-related harms, although it can lead to injuries from outdoor activities, as well as increase violence and mental health problems.

Previously, human induced climate change was estimated to account for 1 per cent of heat-related deaths in Britain.

Experts had predicted reductions in cold-related mortality in colder areas, but believe these will be increasingly outweighed by the severity of warming temperatures.

The ONS warned that the analysis was retrospective and did not indicate future impacts of climate from more heatwaves and extreme weather events which may cause greater harm.