Cakes and fizz to butter up MPS as manoeuvres begin
Sunak and Truss lead the pack of Tories jostling for position amid speculation over the PM’S future
AS INTRIGUE over Boris Johnson’s future increased this week, talk of who might succeed him dominated Westminster. Every move, utterance and gesture of his potential successors has been pored over by Tory colleagues aware that a leadership contest could erupt sooner than many expect.
Rishi Sunak is the bookmakers’ favourite to be the next prime minister. His supporters argue that if Mr Johnson’s premiership collapses the Chancellor is the obvious choice to take over. Not only is he the next most senior Cabinet minister, but as a clean-living technocrat with a reputation for competence and a straightforward personal life, is also being framed as an ideal foil to the Downing Street incumbent.
Tory MPS report being “sounded out” by colleagues for their views on Mr Sunak, but it is denied that these inquiries are authorised.
One backer suggests that he does not require traditional outriders because his political positions are well known and his visibility within the parliamentary party is already high. “He doesn’t really need to do that much – he’s the Chancellor,” the MP said.
None the less, in the past fortnight Mr Sunak has been hosting meetings with back-bench Tories to seek their views on the energy price crisis and income squeeze facing voters. Such meetings are core to his brief, “but no doubt it helps him to meet new MPS”, remarked one frontbencher with a wry smile.
A Cabinet colleague thinks he is a “dead cert” to make the final two runoff in a leadership race, if one is sparked in the short-term. It is an opinion underscored by an Opinium poll this week that showed Mr Sunak is the most popular choice to make the ballot paper among party members.
However, some in the party suspect his prospects could deteriorate if inflation continues to soar and the cost of living crisis worsens, leaving him liable to be blamed for growing anger about the economy and household finances.
Liz Truss is widely considered his biggest rival in any leadership race. Intrigue about the ambitions of the Foreign Secretary was sent into overdrive this week after it emerged that the domain name Inlizwetruss.co.uk had been registered by an unknown party.
The size of her entourage has also raised eyebrows. Guido Fawkes, the Westminster news website, noted her team of special advisers has ballooned to seven, while many Cabinet colleagues employ only two or three.
Smart dinners and drinks with junior Tory MPS, nicknamed “fizz with Liz” nights – although an ally stresses it is not a label she herself has used – have garnered significant attention.
It is understood that she has encouraged MPS at these events to propose their own policy solutions to some of the big questions of the day.
While arguably useful for networking, not all are convinced these gatherings are beneficial. One government source said: “I’ve heard these events are slightly awkward and the mix [of MPS] is too eclectic. People come back and say they are confused as to why they were invited and are unclear what the purpose was. It takes some time to get relaxed in those circumstances and I don’t think they’ve been hugely productive.”
Sources close to Ms Truss insist her regular meetings with MPS are nothing out of the ordinary, arguing they centre on Foreign Office business and echo events she hosted on trade policy while International Trade Secretary. Attempts to build links with frontbenchers are also under way, it is said, amid claims she has suggested catch-ups with those ministers she does not know well.
As the longest continuously serving Cabinet minister, Ms Truss boasts plenty of front-bench experience. One minister describes her manner as “odd” and lacking empathy, however, arguing that this could hamper her chances in an extended leadership race.
Her popularity among the membership seems more assured. She regularly tops the Cabinet league table published by Conservativehome, the website that represents the party grassroots. This appeal may in part derive from her simple but clear political messaging, which centres on the importance of liberty.
Her conscious visual emulation of Margaret Thatcher – from pussybow shirts and a bouffant hair style, to her recent ride in a battle tank – may also help. Ms Truss well understands the importance of image and was, among senior British politicians, one of the earliest adopters of an Instagram page.
Yesterday, she insisted the Prime Minister had her “100pc support”, but she refused to rule out running in a leadership contest. Evading the question, she simply stressed that at present “there’s no leadership election”.
A wide array of fellow Cabinet ministers are expected to throw their hats into the ring if a race does commence – some with potential prospects of success, others cynically viewed as likely to stand only to boost their chances of retaining a frontbench role in future.
Big beasts including Sajid Javid, the Health Secretary, and Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, are the subject of increasing chatter among colleagues who would like to see them run.
Ms Patel’s gift of Christmas puddings to backbenchers last month set tongues wagging. However, an ally yesterday scoffed that it was a festive present to colleagues, “nothing more, nothing less”.
Some Tories believe Michael Gove, the Communities Secretary, could launch another tilt at the top party job, while Nadhim Zahawi, the Education Secretary, is increasingly tipped as a potential candidate.
His role in the successful jabs rollout as former vaccines minister, and his compelling backstory of having arrived in the UK as a nine-year-old refugee unable to speak English, have caught attention. Wags also note he has returned from the Christmas recess looking more svelte.
A plethora of centrist candidates are meanwhile likely to stand from the backbenches in the hopes of sweeping up support from “One Nation” Tories. These include Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary, who admitted this week that his leadership ambitions had not “completely vanished”, despite a bruising defeat in the run-off against Mr Johnson last time.
Strikingly, he sent Christmas cards to MPS in the 2019 intake that addressed their partners and children by name, according to the Politico website, which also reported that this week he instructed officials on the Commons health committee, of which he is chairman, to improve their social media.
Matt Hancock, a fellow former health secretary, is also seen as harbouring ambitions. He was snapped looking trim in swimming trunks heading into the Serpentine lido for a swim this week, a day before he set out his thoughts on the economy in The Daily Telegraph.
Penny Mordaunt, the trade minister, is another name shared in moderate circles, as talk of a leadership contest grows. It has not gone unnoticed that she sent a copy of her recent book about political reform to many Conservative MPS and she is said to be doing “a lot of tea room networking”. She also boasts military credentials, alongside Tom Tugendhat, the chairman of the Commons foreign affairs committee, who is seen as an eloquent and impassioned orator and is expected to stand.
Meanwhile on the right flank of the Tory back benches, Mark Harper and Steve Baker are the source of growing leadership speculation. As chairman and deputy chairman, respectively, of the Covid Recovery Group of lockdownsceptic Conservatives, they are viewed as enjoying a network of allies who could be converted into supporters.
For now, of course, there is no vacancy for the role of Conservative Party leader – and allies of Mr Johnson argue that the Tory plotters and rebels who appeared to be gaining the frontfoot earlier this week have now run out of steam.
Moments of peril lie ahead for the Prime Minister, however. Next week the findings of the Sue Gray report into “partygate” are expected to be published. Beyond that, a key electoral test awaits at the May local elections.
Whether his critics will triumph in forcing a no-confidence vote in Mr Johnson in the weeks and months ahead remains unclear. What is certain is that manoeuvring and speculation over his eventual successor will only increase.