Sanctions won’t work, as Putin can just sit out the economic retribution

Vladimir Putin never really wanted negotiations with the West over European security. He wanted Ukraine incorporated into a rump Soviet empire.

We are beyond deterrence now.

Mr Putin’s latest speech laid out, in a very emotional way, deeply held historical views and grievances that date back to the Cold War.

He has an image of the West that is totally at odds with the way we look at ourselves. His world view is a very dark and paranoid one where he sees the West threatening Russia.

With a mind like that, threatening sanctions, particularly economic sanctions, isn’t going to deter him from anything. Sanctions at this point are purely punishment, not a deterrence.

What is more, Mr Putin doesn’t think he’s going to feel undue pain from sanctions.

He has priced in the economic pain of sanctions and the West will come around in a few years, reduce them and want to go back to business as usual. He has enough financial reserves and a margin of resilience where he’ll be able to last until the West wants to do business again.

But what if these sanctions really do hurt the Russian economy much more than he can take and he lashes out? What if he retaliates and we find ourselves dealing with Russian actions like major cyber attacks?

Mr Putin won’t stop after taking those two so-called breakaway provinces.

He will probably go in and try to topple Ukraine’s president.

Frankly, Mr Putin has created a narrative of post-cold War history to justify his actions such as invading Georgia and Ukraine. He was looking for grievances and he nursed them to the point where he could justify rebuilding what was left of the Soviet Union.

I’m not sure there’s anything more

‘If he does invade in a big way, with all the horror of modern warfare, we’ll all be shocked by the brutality of it’

that the West could have done to forestall this.

If he does invade Ukraine in a big way, with all the horror that comes with modern warfare, I think we’ll all be shocked by the brutality of it. We certainly thought we left those days behind in the last century.

It should serve as a reminder that if we let our guard down and don’t tend to our defence, we find ourselves revisiting the shock of war, and we learn once again how horrible it is.

After that speech, I don’t see any way around it.

The invasion has already started. I just don’t think we’re going to be able to stop it now.