Moldova braced for ‘spectrum of threats’ if Russia moves on Odesa

Intelligence sources fear pro-european state with a breakaway enclave could be next on Putin’s list

MOLDOVA fears it could become the next target for Russian aggression as Vladimir Putin aims to push his forces across the south of Ukraine all the way to its former Soviet neighbour.

Intelligence sources fear that Russian troops could join up with forces in Transnistria, a breakaway pro-russian region in the east of Moldova, which could give Mr Putin a foothold to take over the rest of the country.

Moldova, which is sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania, is not a member of Nato or the European Union and has long been divided between prorussian and pro-european camps.

Western intelligence sources say Russia may attempt “false flag” attacks in Moldova to create a pretext to justify a full-scale military intervention there.

Last week, Maia Sandu, the Moldovan president, signed an application to join the EU, mirroring similar moves by Georgia and Ukraine. Moldova hopes that the EU will extend a formal promise of eventual membership at an informal summit in France next week.

Moldova has a large Russian-speaking minority that many worry is being targeted by Moscow to generate protests against the government. Russian proxies in Moldova have stepped up a disinformation campaign over the past few days.

“Russia will try to use whatever influence it has to ensure Moldova has a prorussian government,” one diplomat in Chisinau, the capital, said. It was “credible” Moscow might feel it necessary to resort to force, the diplomat added.

Nicu Popescu, Moldova’s foreign minister, said the country was “preparing for the full spectrum of threats” and “could not exclude any scenario” given the current situation.

It is unlikely Moldova could resist as resiliently as Ukraine. The 3,500-strong Moldovan army is under equipped and Chisinau spends less than 0.38 per cent of national income on defence. Since the Russian invasion, Moldova has scrambled to increase its border guards.

Moldovan and Ukrainian officials believe Russia’s war aims include establishing a land bridge to Transnistria, which declared independence as the Soviet Union collapsed and hosts a small Russian military presence of around 1,500 men. Many in Chisinau believe it will be used to attack Ukraine from the rear once Russian soldiers begin an expected assault on Odesa – which is 25 miles from Moldova.

Moldova declared a state of emergency on Feb 24, the day the war began, and has banned the export of staple foods, closed its airspace and steppedup patrols along its borders with Ukraine and Transnistria.

The most fragile of Ukraine’s western neighbours has welcomed a huge inflow of refugees. Authorities estimated that by last Friday 163,000 Ukrainians entered and the total is expected to rise fast if Odesa is attacked.

In the back streets of Chisinau, one refugee, on her way to Italy with her daughter and daughter-in-law, said: “Putin is coming for Moldova next.”

‘Russia will try to use whatever influence it has to ensure that Moldova has a prorussian government’