Covid mortality rate in UK about average worldwide

BRITAIN’S pandemic death rate is far better than previously thought compared with the rest of the world, a study by The Lancet has shown.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in the US calculated the excess death rates for 191 countries and territories, and found that the UK is now roughly in the middle – at 102.

Previously, countries have been judged by death rates alone, which would place Britain at 168 – or 24th worst.

Critics of the Government’s pandemic response have often cited the poor placement as justification for calling for tougher restrictions. But Britain was found to have an excess death rate of 126.8 per 100,000, very close to France which had 124.4 per 100,000 and Germany 120.5.

Sweden, which did not lock down, had one of the best excess death rates in Europe – coming in at 65, with 91.2 per 100,000. Only Finland, Luxembourg and Iceland fared better. The UK excess death rate is close to the average global excess death rate of 120 per 100,000. Experts believe that excess deaths are a better indicator of the true scale of the pandemic because they discount people who would have died anyway in the period, and level the playing field, exposing countries who have underreported deaths.

Last week Ed Humpherson, the director-general of the UK Statistics regulator, told MPS at the Health and Science Select Committee that he would advise using excess deaths as the more accurate figure. Dr Sarah Scobie, deputy director of research at Nuffield Trust, added: “I think, if I was wanting to make a comparison internationally, I would be inclined to look at excess deaths as as the better measure because that would that would deal with the fact that in different countries there may be differences in how in how Covid has been recorded, and particularly at the early stages of the pandemic.”

The study found many countries have been under-reporting deaths, and estimated that the true toll of Covid globally is likely to be three times the official figure – 18.2 million compared to 5.9 million up to Dec 31 2021.

The highest estimated excess deaths were in India (4.1 million), US (1.1 million), Russia (1.1 million) and Mexico (798,000).

♦ Latest data show that the infection fatality rate for Covid is now lower than for influenza. While 35 in 100,000 omicron infections result in death, 40 people in 100,000 will die from a flu infection.