The might and motivation to take capital may well be missing

An exhausted, demoralised invasion force is facing a galvanised foe promising street-to-street defiance

Kyiv matters. It is the political, historic and cultural centre of Ukraine. It stands as a beacon of resistance against the Russian assault. Russian forces appear to be “re-posturing” for an assault on the capital. But how likely is it that Valdimir Putin’s army, weakened, demoralised and exhausted after two weeks of war, will be able to lay siege to the city?

To cut Kyiv off from any reinforcements that will undoubtedly rush north if the capital is threatened will be an enormous undertaking.

Given the city measures roughly 22 miles north to south and 16 miles east to west, Russia will need to establish a cordon of nearly 60 miles.

With each Russian Battalion Tactical Group able to defend a frontage of about half a mile, that is a tall order. Without calling up reserves from the homeland, this task is probably beyond the capability of the forces Russia has deployed into Ukraine.

And that’s just the outer cordon, designed to prevent reinforcements. Russia will also need to lay out an inner cordon to slowly squeeze the life out of any defenders that seek to resist.

The Russians could have about 50,000 to 100,000 troops around Kyiv. It took 2.5million to capture Berlin in 1945, with heavy losses.

For Kyiv, both the steel rings will need to be composed of the full panoply of military might: tanks, infantry, air defence, engineers, logistics, medics, electronic warfare and so on.

That is eminently possible for a modern force that is organised for such an “all-arms” battle; which has trained and rehearsed, and understands the differing needs and tempos of the various elements.

Armies learn fast, especially in the white heat of combat, but Russia’s tactical performance so far suggests this level of competence is beyond them.

Mick Ryan, a former major general in the Australian army, says the ongoing defence of Kyiv is a major psychological boost for Ukraine’s soldiers and civilians, and acts to catalyse international support for Ukraine.

He warns that Russia may not have the capacity to prevail.

“First, they need a theatre-level reserve in the north if they are to complete encirclement of Kyiv and follow-on attack on the city. The size of Russian forces currently in the north is likely to be insufficient for both tasks,” he says.

“Second, the Russians more broadly may need to start planning for more reinforcements and rotating forces. Both humans and equipment need breaks in combat to retain effectiveness over the medium and longer term. And Russian losses have probably been higher than anticipated.”

A siege is also likely to involve cutting power supplies and communications networks, sowing terror and confusion among the remaining civilians.

Vitali Klitschko, the city’s mayor, says half the capital’s population has already fled, but that still leaves more than a million people.

Without power and mobile phone infrastructure, the chances of President Volodymyr Zelensky being able to communicate more moraleboosting speeches will be severely limited.

Russia will seek to take down the military communications systems relied upon by the city’s defenders, or at least degrade them with electronic warfare attacks to the point of being useless.

Information, especially photographs and digital media, will be strictly controlled to sell a message of Russian military dominance and to prevent scenes of carnage refuting claims of precision and compassion.

If a siege and capture look out of Russia’s reach, the alternative is to remain on the outskirts, using artillery and air power to pulverise the city into surrender.

Given the totemic value of Kyiv – and the difficulty of selling a war of liberation to the Russian population back home should pictures of devastation start leaking out – it is unlikely Russia will use overwhelming force, initially at least.

However, given the assault on Berlin at the end of the Second World War required three Soviet Army fronts totalling 2.5million men and thousands of tanks, aircraft and artillery pieces, any attempt to fight building-tobuilding, street-to-street – which is what the Ukrainians are promising – will require much greater forces than Russia currently has available.

‘Armies learn fast, especially in the white heat of combat, but Russia’s tactical performance so far suggests this level of competence is beyond them’