Putin must be denied territorial gains from invasion, says West
Rhetoric strengthens from Western governments as officials say Russian leader ‘must be seen to fail’
WESTERN governments want to deny Russia any territorial gains from its invasion of Ukraine, officials have said in the clearest indication yet of the scale of the defeat they want to impose on Moscow.
Western officials said the current war must end with Russian forces withdrawing “at a minimum” to the positions they held at the start of the invasion in February. Such an outcome could leave Vladimir Putin in control of Crimea and part of the Donbas, but would deny him his publicly declared war aim of “liberating” Donetsk and Luhansk regions and establishing a land bridge to Crimea.
“Our strategic objective is to ensure that Putin is seen to fail in Ukraine,” said a Western official.
Asked what that would mean on the ground, the official said: “We would want to see Russian forces withdrawn to positions they occupied in February this year at a minimum, and no change to Ukraine’s borders without the agreement of its government and its people.”
The official declined to describe in detail how that would be achieved but warned the war would be a “long haul.”
It came as Mr Putin again hinted he
‘Heavy weapons, tanks, aeroplanes – digging deep into our inventories. We need to do all of this’
‘This buys time for the Ukrainians to build up their capabilities and secure further military equipment’
would use nuclear weapons if the West intervened against his forces in Ukraine. “If anyone sets out to intervene in the current events from the outside and creates unacceptable threats for us that are strategic in nature, they should know that our response... will be lightning-fast,” the Russian leader said in a speech to parliament.
“We have all the tools for this, that no one else can boast of having. We won’t boast about it: we’ll use them, if needed. And I want everyone to know that,” Mr Putin said, in a reference to Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
Mr Putin promised his invasion would “fulfil all the tasks” it set out to “without condition”.
Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, at the start of the war ruled out bargaining Ukrainian sovereignty or territory in exchange for peace. Western leaders initially avoided ruling out such trade-offs, sticking instead to a vague mantra, first coined by Boris Johnson in February, that the Russian invasion must be “seen to fail”.
That rhetoric has changed in recent days to less ambiguous backing for a “Ukrainian victory.”
Liz Truss, the Foreign Secretary, last night branded Mr Putin a “desperate rogue operator” and warned that he could invade other countries, including Georgia and Moldova. Ms Truss is understood to believe that the war in Ukraine could last for up to five years – or even as long as a decade.
However, she described Ukrainian victory as a “strategic imperative” at her speech at Mansion House in London, and called on allies to redouble their supply of weapons. “Heavy weapons, tanks, aeroplanes – digging deep into our inventories, ramping up production. We need to do all of this,” she said.
Her remarks echo remarks by Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, who said on Tuesday that the US and allies would move “Heaven and Earth” to help Ukraine win.
It is not clear whether Western governments believe such a Russian retreat can be compelled by purely military means on the battlefield. The UK, US, and other Western governments have begun delivering tanks, artillery and other heavy weapons to Ukraine to help resist a large Russian offensive currently unfolding in the east of the country.
Downing Street said yesterday that it could train Ukrainian pilots in Britain and might send jets to Eastern Europe to “backfill” for allies who supply warplanes to Kyiv. However, Russia retains the advantage in manpower and guns, and the weapons pledged so far are probably not enough for a strategic counteroffensive on the scale needed to reverse the invasion.
The stated objective also leaves some gaps between the West and Kyiv.
Mr Johnson said after meeting Mr Zelensky this month that the Ukrainian president’s preference for “Russian forces to be expelled from their existing positions in Donetsk and Luhansk” would go beyond merely a return to pre-invasion lines. “That’s a pretty maximalist position. On Crimea they’re not as maximalist,” he said at the time.
Moscow is seeking to complete the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the Donbas in the next “four to six weeks” with the goal of maximising its negotiating position at peace talks, the Western official said.
But its advance has been stymied by poor logistics, bad weather, and dogged Ukrainian resistance including rapid counter attacks and special forces ambushes on supply convoys.
“All of this buys time for the Ukrainians to build up their capabilities, mobilise volunteers, and secure further military equipment,” he said.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s attempt to sanction almost 300 UK MPS backfired yesterday as it emerged scores of those targeted had actually quit politics years ago. The Russian foreign ministry published a list of 287 supposed MPS accused of playing the “most active role” in bringing about the UK’S sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine.