Rural voters feel ‘taken for granted’ by Conservatives
‘Disillusioned’ countryside residents hold the fate of Tory councillors in their hands in local elections
Dawn Denton should be confident in her first campaign to become a local councillor. Her party, the Conservatives, already have a majority on Somerset county council and she hopes to replace the popular outgoing Tory in the Frome North ward in the elections.
But voters are ripping down her posters and burning them. “The farmers have said they are happy to put them up but they get trashed,” she said, while out canvassing this week.
“People say they are going to put them up really close to the election, because we know they’re not going to survive. I’ve had people throw leaflets back out the door at me as well.”
Ms Denton, a South African-born former tour guide, has decided not to attend a hustings in Frome, near Bath, because she does not think “nasty” locals will give her a fair hearing.
She is one of more than 10,000 prospective councillors seeking office in the local elections on May 5, for all seats in Wales and Scotland, plus a scattering of others across England.
The election is a key test for Boris Johnson, who is facing a difficult mid-term contest after months of criticism of his leadership from Tory quarters over partygate, tax rises and the cost of living.
Many of the English council areas, including Somerset, Hertfordshire and Hampshire, are places the Conservatives have traditionally considered to be strongholds. Now, they are increasingly thought of as part of the “Blue Wall”, with millions of wavering Tory voters disgruntled with Mr Johnson, and who may flip to Labour or the Liberal Democrats.
Deborah Tapp, who stopped to discuss the elections in Shepton Mallet, a town in Somerset’s Mendips, said: “I used to be a Conservative voter but I’m not any more.”
For almost 800 years, the town has had a bustling farmers’ market, but of late the high street has struggled.
Ms Tapp said: “Before, I basically thought all politicians were good. But it changed in the last year or so because of everything. I just get a bit disillusioned. I used to like Boris but I just don’t have trust in him any more.”
Patrick John, 64, said he voted for the Tories before leaving Britain 42 years ago, but is unlikely to support them now he has returned. He said: “The politics of this country have got worse in the time that I have been away. The natural fabric of society has been destroyed. You can’t say anything without upsetting somebody.”
Somerset voters are showing what strategists in all parties have found – there has been a shift away from the Tories among countryside residents.
New research from Parliament’s all-party group for rural business and the Rural Powerhouse campaigners suggests the Government has a “chronic under-appreciation for the economic and social potential of the countryside” and businesses in rural areas are on average 18 per cent less productive than the country at large.
Many voters who have always lent the Tories their trust feel southern rural areas have suffered at the expense of “levelling up” – the Government’s plan to improve neglected northern areas.
Meanwhile, the parliamentary spending watchdog has said a Tory promise of next-generation broadband speed by 2025 is unlikely to be met.
And countryside voters, who are often keen to protect the natural beauty of their homes, say plans to rip up the planning system to build more houses and erect new onshore wind farms are an attack on their way of life.
Paul Moody, an antiques dealer who lives near Shepton Mallet, said his faith in the Conservatives’ commitment to the countryside is being challenged by “horrendous” new pylons and the threat of solar panels carpeting fields.
Answering a survey conducted for The Daily Telegraph by Redfield and Wilton Strategies this week, 19 per cent of voters said the Conservatives cared about rural areas, while 28 per cent said Labour did. Almost half of voters said “levelling up” does not inspire them. Other national polling shows Labour has increased its lead by three points since April 12, when Mr Johnson was fined over partygate.
While ministers have repeatedly suggested the public does not care about this, and would prefer to see No 10 focus on domestic policy, Tory sources admit privately that polling shows that idea is “for the birds”.
The elections will replace or return councillors last elected in 2018, when Labour and the Liberal Democrats performed strongly and set themselves a “high water mark”. But there are many who think it will be surpassed on Thursday, including Sir Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader.
He said the local elections will continue a run of successes against Tory incumbents that began with a victory in the Chesham and Amersham by-election last June.
“The Conservatives are in trouble and we’re really challenging them,” he said on a farm visit to promote the party’s new rural policies last week.
His trip was timed to coincide with the “defection” of Stuart Roberts, a former Tory councillor and deputy president of the National Farmers’ Union, who has joined the Lib Dems.
“I could see back in May, before Chesham and Amersham, the areas we were clearly doing better were the Hertfordshires, the Cambridgeshires, the Surreys, the Wiltshires, the Oxfordshires,” Sir Ed said.
He represents the suburban London constituency of Kingston and Surbiton, but pointed out his wife once worked on a farm in Australia, while his mother-in-law’s family is from farming stock in Zimbabwe. He said: “We have represented rural constituencies for decades, and farmers feel the Tories have taken them for granted.”
Several have told The Telegraph a collapse in seats on Thursday could be the beginning of the end for Mr Johnson as he faces a cost of living crisis, and the imminent publication of Sue Gray’s report into partygate.
Back in Frome, Ms Denton said voters often cite the Prime Minister as a reason not to back the Tories.
She said: “They say if they vote Conservative, they are endorsing Boris ... But if they get a sense that those in Westminster are holding Boris to account, then they’ll cast their vote Conservative. So they are waiting to see what happens this week.”