Irish reunification

Could it really happen?

Q Why is there now the prospect of a border poll on Irish reunification?

A Sinn Fein, a party supporting Irish reunification, looks set to win a majority in Northern Ireland elections for the first time. It has said Brexit has accelerated the debate on reunification with Eu-member Ireland because most Northern Irish voters voted Remain.

Q Who decides whether a poll is called?

A The Good Friday Agreement recognised the right of people on the island of Ireland to reunify if polls organised by Belfast and Dublin support it.

UK law says the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland should order a vote if it “appears likely” a majority of voters want a united Ireland but is unclear on how that should be decided.

The Irish government must also agree to a nationwide ballot.

Q But can’t Sinn Féin order a referendum?

A No. In fact, Sinn Féin can’t even form a Northern Ireland Executive without the consent of the DUP. Power-sharing needs the two largest nationalist and unionist parties to agree. This system also means the cross-community Alliance Party cannot enter into a coalition with Sinn Fein unless the DUP is also part of the administration.

Q Do people want reunification?

A In the last referendum in 1973, 99 per cent of voters backed staying in the UK but the vote was compromised by a low turnout of just 59 per cent.

A poll last year found 30 per cent of Northern Irish voters backed reunification but different research found that just 50 per cent of people were in favour of remaining part of the UK.

Polls last year found that two thirds of Irish people supported reunification but more than half of them would reject that if it led to an increase in taxes.

One in eight would reject reunification if it meant taking on Britain’s full costs of supporting Northern Ireland.

Q Will it happen?

A Michelle O’neill has tempered her Republican rhetoric to broaden her appeal and says her priority is healthcare and the cost of living. She will need to be a successful First Minister to build up the support she would need to win a border poll.

Q Will a Northern Ireland Executive be formed?

A That seems unlikely in the short term. The DUP has said it won’t enter into power sharing agreement unless there is a deal to demand the Northern Ireland Protocol be removed or replaced. The Brexit

treaty created the Irish Sea border and unionists fear it is driving a wedge between them and the rest of the UK.

Q What happens next?

A Parties will meet at Stormont on Monday after results are finalised today. Failure to agree a power sharing agreement means Stormont will stagger on as a caretaker administration for at least the next five weeks, rendering it powerless to implement new policies.

Q How does the election work?

A The election of 90 members of the Assembly is run on a form of proportional representation called the Single Transferable Vote. This means voters can rank candidates by preference with votes being transferred once a quota for a seat is reached.