The West now has the chance to cripple Putin’s Russia for good

There was some trepidation in Europe when, on a recent visit to Poland, US secretary of defence Lloyd Austin stated that America’s new aim “was to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine”. In places like Germany, such statements are not taken lightly because there is a genuine fear of direct confrontation with Russia. Yet, while the anxiety is understandable, secretary Austin was correct.

As Putin doubled down on his war rhetoric yesterday, the reality is that the West has a once-in-a–generation chance to severely weaken Russia’s capabilities, both militarily and geopolitically. We can prevent Russia from having the technical ability to conduct future wars of conquest and incentivise it into a path of respecting the Western-led order – and all without stating the aim explicitly.

There are three components to making permanent our recent gains.

First, we must preserve the unity of Nato and keep it as open as ever to new members. The addition of Sweden and Finland would immediately strengthen the alliance. We should admit them as quickly as possible and provide security guarantees while their applications are being worked through. Both have high quality militaries that are undergoing modernisation, as well as gold standard capabilities in coastal defence and intelligence gathering. More importantly, they are resilient, prosperous societies built on democratic ideals. Their accession to Nato would provide a remarkable combination of moral strength and military pooling, producing a heavy counterweight to Russia.

Next, we need a strategy for the Black Sea. Given that it is at the core of Russia’s power projection – used to threaten not just Ukraine but Moldova and Georgia – we have been paying surprisingly little attention. Russia’s naval posture has been severely restricted by the steps Turkey took to close the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles straits to warships. This should remind us of the importance of our relationship with Istanbul. To strengthen it would mean to maintain the interests of the free world in that strategically vital area. In time, Turkish cooperation could serve as an enormous disincentive for Russia to engage in any future conflicts in eastern Europe, since the Black Sea has always been a critical element of Russian military calculations in the region.

Finally, the grip of sanctions must continue to tighten. We cannot take it for granted that the action we’ve already taken will sustain itself. Already, some Western firms are returning to Russia and splits are emerging within the EU over proposed energy embargoes. These problems need to be dealt with quickly, for they give succour to the Kremlin propaganda that sanctions are merely short-term pain for long-term gain. But not only that: we should do more to prevent the import of critical components for precision missiles, which would prevent Russia from assembling cruise missiles.

As a retired US Army Officer, it has been inspiring to see how the West has put aside minor diplomatic differences to focus on the bigger picture. We are open, resilient societies that lead the world by the power of inspiration. That is why the Ukrainian people are depending on our support. Now we can cement our influence – not just to counter the autocrat presiding in the Kremlin, but to dissuade any other autocrat from following his path of destruction.