Putin’s invasion backfires by pushing Nordic duo into the arms of Nato
Sweden and Finland are poised to join alliance in a major change to Europe’s security architecture
Vladimir Putin likes to portray Russia’s existence as an ongoing struggle against a malevolent and expansionist Nato. Part of his justification for the latest assault on Ukraine was to push Nato further from Russia’s borders. He has badly miscalculated.
That he convinced himself Western nations would not come to Ukraine’s aid for the simple reason it does not enjoy the protections of Article 5
‘The Baltic sea will become an inner lake of Nato, where the Russian navy has no ability to operate, except underwater’
shows the Alice-in-wonderland nature of his perception of geopolitical reality.
Far from abandoning Ukraine or allowing healthy differences of opinion to become fractures between partner nations, the West – and Nato – has stuck by a friend in need.
If that has frustrated Mr Putin, wait until he sees the anticipated next big shift in Europe’s security architecture, courtesy of Sweden and Finland’s likely application for Nato membership.
Both countries are expected to attend Nato’s June summit in Madrid as “invitees”, giving the two Nordic states observer status in all discussions bar those on nuclear capabilities.
All 30 members of the alliance are understood to be supportive of their expected membership requests, which, for Helsinki, could come as soon as next week. While they would not become full members for between six to eight months because of ratification processes, they would be treated as if they were.
Without mentioning Article 5 by name, Boris Johnson, visiting both countries yesterday, effectively said both Sweden and Finland would enjoy Nato’s collective defence mechanism as soon as they applied.
Nato officials believe it is very unlikely the Kremlin will follow through on threats to strike both territories if they join the alliance.
When The Telegraph visited Finland last week with Ben Wallace, the Defence Secretary was asked about a possible Russian attack following an application for Nato membership.
“With what?” He shrugged, pointing out Russia has lost an estimated 16 per cent of its entire land forces in Mr Putin’s reckless adventure in Ukraine.
President Sauli Niinisto is expected to back the bid, which yesterday drew a step closer after the Finnish
parliamentary defence committee recommended the government join the alliance.
Should Finland and Sweden become Nato members, it will mark the most significant geopolitical realignment in the Nordics for a generation.
“Politically, it’s huge,” said Pekka Toveri, a former chief of intelligence for the Finnish defence forces.
“The Baltic sea will become an inner lake of Nato, where the Russian navy has no ability to operate, except underwater. Now there’s no way in hell they can protect Kola and St Petersburg if there is a war with Nato.”
The Kola Peninsula in Russia’s extreme north west is home to its northern fleet. Submarines and surface vessels attempting to break out into the Atlantic will be extremely vulnerable in the event of hostilities with Nato should Sweden and Finland join the alliance. Their proposed bids looked unlikely just weeks before the outbreak of war on Feb 24.
“Polls since the late 1990s have been remarkably consistent [with] 60 to 70 per cent of [Finnish] people against Nato membership, even after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea,” said Charly Salonius-pasternak, lead researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
“Now, around 65 per cent of people support it.”
Finland has been lauded for its military preparedness, and has been planning for a conflict long before the fall of the Soviet Union. National conscription is still mandatory for all males, and the country boasts about 900,000 reservists, from a population of only 5.5 million.
Sweden also fields an impressive military, especially in its submarine force and intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft.
Clearly visible on flight tracker websites, Sweden’s ISR planes are regularly seen patrolling the edges of Ukraine and Kaliningrad – the Russian exclave sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland. Comparable Nato assets are often found doing laps in the same small chunks of airspace. That the Swedes and Nato have avoided an incident in the skies is impressive, and nods to co-operation. Perhaps even co-ordination?
“We’re so close we’re practically members already,” The Telegraph was told by Peter Hultqvist, Sweden’s defence minister, in Belvoir Castle, Leicestershire, recently.
He spoke with a twinkle in his eye but with mud on his trousers, the result of being dropped off in the wrong field by the RAF helicopter that had brought him to the meeting of European defence ministers.
Would Nato membership by Sweden and Finland ensure such incidents don’t happen again? Maybe not, but they will certainly give Vladimir Putin pause for thought.