Threat of famine

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had a profound impact on the distribution of foodstuffs, notably grain. The country accounts for 12 per cent of global wheat exports, 16 per cent of corn and 18 per cent of barley.

Even if Ukraine is able to bring in a harvest, its produce would be unable to leave the besieged Black Sea ports, and some 20 million tons from last year is stockpiled and at risk of rotting.

The countries that will be most affected by a shortfall are in the developing world. Many of them will feel the squeeze from higher prices, which can have political consequences for regimes unable to feed their people.

Agriculture experts have told the United Nations that the world has just 10 weeks’ worth of wheat stockpiled and inventories of fertiliser, cooking oil and grains have fallen to their lowest level since 2008.

They have called for “substantial, immediate and aggressive coordinated global actions” to counter what will otherwise be a calamity. The world’s leaders need to focus on working out how Ukraine’s harvestable wheat not needed for domestic consumption and stockpiled produce can be transported by land if the ports remain shut, or provide the necessary naval back up in the Black Sea to ensure they can leave by ship.

In 1948, when the Soviet Union tried to starve West Berlin by blocking road, rail and canal access to the city, the allies organised an air bridge. At its peak it was delivering 13,000 tons of produce a day. Is it beyond the abilities of the West today to organise a road bridge that would transport Ukraine’s produce westwards to European ports from where it can be distributed?