The Prime Minister is left badly wounded
The Conservative Party has ended up in the worst possible position by badly wounding the Prime Minister while failing to remove him from office. At the end of a dramatic day, Boris Johnson made clear that, after securing 59 per cent of the vote of MPS, he will continue as Prime Minister. Under the rules of the party, another vote cannot be held for a year. That, however, was true of Theresa May, who also won a vote of confidence, in December 2018, only to be forced out months later when it became apparent that her authority had been fatally undermined and she resigned.
Can Mr Johnson avoid the same fate? There is one important difference in that he has a substantial parliamentary majority whereas his predecessor had none and was immured in a political quagmire over Brexit from which she could not escape. No such crisis attends Mr Johnson, yet he has done worse than she did.
This is not so much about policy as personality: many of his MPS simply no longer trust him.
Of course, many of them never did in the first place and have been biding their time before making a move; but they have been joined by MPS who might have been expected to remain loyal, especially those who supported Brexit but feel the opportunities have been squandered.
Mr Johnson’s misfortune has been to alienate both wings of the party at the same time and, in order to cultivate the support of one, he ends up angering the other. Trying to steer a middle road between former Labour supporting Red Wall voters and core Tories in the shires has proved beyond even his capabilities.
The confidence vote was suddenly sprung on Conservative MPS as they returned from their constituencies after the jubilee break. There had been talk of a vote on Wednesday or even after the two by-elections on June 23 that the Tories are expected to lose. In the event, Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, had received the 54 letters requesting a confidence vote by the weekend and, after consultation with the Prime Minister, decided to hold it immediately.
This must have suited Mr Johnson by avoiding two days of speculation and plotting. There was always a risk that an expedited vote would backfire but since it was going to happen anyway it was better for No10 to get it over and done with.
His victory allowed Mr Johnson to urge the party to put their divisions aside and let him get on with the job of governing. His difficulty, however, is that it is he who is causing those divisions.
A critical memorandum circulated among MPS over the weekend set out a charge sheet which brooks little prospect of unity. It says Mr Johnson is no longer an electoral asset and, if left in post, will lead the party to certain defeat in 2024. The Sue Gray report into breaches of lockdown rules in No10 has acted as a catalyst for those seeking the Prime Minister’s removal, in particular the fact he denied in parliament that there had been any parties.
The memo said this has led to a widespread breakdown in trust among voters that will not be restored whatever he promises to do next. Moreover, the Committee of Privileges is still to rule on whether Mr Johnson deliberately misled the Commons. Were it to do so, his resignation would be demanded once more.
Perhaps most damning is the accusation that the entire purpose of the Government is to sustain Mr Johnson in office rather than to improve the lot of the country. “MPS are having to defend the indefensible, not for the sake of the party, but for one man,” it adds. Even popular policies such as helping families to cope with higher energy costs appear to be falling flat.
However, Mr Johnson’s supporters countered with their own dossier pointing to his record as an election winner, his Brexit deal with the EU and his support for Ukraine. “It would be extremely harmful to the United Kingdom and to the Conservative Party to launch a distracting, divisive and destructive leadership contest,” the memo added.
The prospect of a bruising battle for the premiership – the second in just four years – would certainly damage the Tories, possibly more than hanging on to a wounded leader. It is also unclear how any successor would change matters. Would Jeremy Hunt, for instance, reform the NHS, cut taxes and produce a growth strategy? Would he seek to utilise the opportunities of Brexit to deregulate and cut the umbilical ties with Europe once and for all? Does he or any of the other would-be leaders have an alternative?
Mr Johnson’s supporters say that, with the confidence vote out of the way, the party and the Government can “move on from the distractions”. But it is he who is the distraction and for as long as he stays in office he will remain so unless he can bring the party together behind an agreed strategy.
In his appeal to MPS last night, Mr Johnson promised to cut taxes despite the burden having risen to a 70-year high. He needs to deliver on that. The great danger for the Tories is that they so undermine the Prime Minister that he is unable to govern effectively. He has won a reprieve but how long will it last?
The danger for Tories is that they so undermine the Prime Minister that he is unable to govern effectively