Scholz’s empty promises will harm Nato

Bombastic speeches that overplay his commitment to Ukraine undermine Western credibility

When Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, visited Nato troops at the Lithuanian border with Belarus on Tuesday, his message was clear: Germany stands ready to defend “every centimetre of Nato territory”. Strong words, but so far there has been little evidence of deeds to match them.

Speaking with the leaders of the Baltic states in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, Scholz was understandably challenged on German foot-dragging when it came to delivering weapons to Ukraine. Visibly annoyed, the chancellor set to correct this “false impression” by claiming that “nobody delivers on a similar scale as Germany does”.

This is simply not true, and would have been particularly grating to the Baltic leaders in attendance. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, which tracks government support for Ukraine, Estonia and Latvia have given the most, relative to their GDPS. Lithuania ranks in fifth place behind Poland and the US. Even in absolute terms of money spent on military, humanitarian and financial support for Ukraine, Germany trails behind the US, the UK and Poland.

It is certainly true that Scholz has had a mountain to climb to turn the foreign and security policy of his predecessors around. For too long, the country’s armed forces had been the unloved step-child of German politics, underfunded and underprepared for armed conflict.

The country’s long-standing policy not to deliver arms to war zones also had to be overcome. Scholz was internationally lauded for his speech following the invasion of Ukraine, in which he said that this would have to be a watershed moment, a Zeitenwende, for Germany too. Since then, his government has promised Ukraine a lot more than its opening gambit of 5,000 helmets back in January.

But crucially, it hasn’t delivered what it promised. Only two arms shipments have reached Ukraine since the end of March. Both contained light equipment such as machine gun parts and hand grenades. Most of the heavier gear that Scholz listed on Tuesday, from howitzers to anti-aircraft tanks, is still in the pipeline and has not yet been delivered.

That these promises have not been kept is deeply concerning, particularly as the political will to commit more to national and European defence is clearly there. Only last week the German parliament approved a financial boost of 100billion euros for the Bundeswehr, a development which Scholz is keen to advertise.

The chancellor has also made laudable promises to bolster Nato’s eastern flank. Germany currently leads the contingent in Lithuania with around 1,000 soldiers deployed there. “We are determined to strengthen our contribution,” he said this week, adding that the current presence must be “developed into a robust combat brigade.” German government sources have confirmed that troop numbers will indeed be increased to 1,500 as a first step in that direction.

This is certainly a positive development, and indicative of a long-term change of direction for Germany: the dramatic increase of defence spending will outlast Scholz’s current tenure as chancellor as the German parliament has just anchored it in the constitution so that future governments will need a two-thirds majority to undo the changes.

The chancellor’s words matched the scale of this historic change, when he pledged this week to “ensure that the Bundeswehr, which will probably be by far the largest conventional army in Europe, can in conjunction with Nato play its role in organising and securing our common defence”.

But deterrence should take centre stage alongside defence, and it entirely relies on credibility. Russia needs to believe that the German chancellor means what he says. Bombastic statements about commitment to Ukraine that bear little resemblance to the realities on the ground don’t build credibility, they undermine it.

Europe’s borders need defending in Ukraine right now and there is little indication that Germany is throwing its full economic and military might behind this endeavour. Scholz is saying the right things but deeds now need to follow. When it comes to deterrence, actions speak louder than words.