Don’t rule out an entente cordiale in Protocol negotiations just yet
It wouldn’t be a Brexit negotiation without a crash, bang, wallop moment to create space for an eventual deal. And the current wrangle over the Northern Ireland Protocol is no different, with both Brussels and London on a war-footing, or that’s what they want you to believe.
For many in the Belgian capital, Boris Johnson’s plan to unilaterally override the province’s post-brexit border arrangements is an egregious breach of international law, akin to Vladimir Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine.
Ministers in Westminster have taken an entirely opposite stance: their actions are required to protect the hard-won gains of the Good Friday peace agreement, a pact the EU’S intransigence is putting in jeopardy.
The result of this cross-channel differing opinion? A metaphorical nuclear explosion that has left a devastating cloud of radioactive dust lingering over our already stricken relations.
If you slowly wipe away the dust, an environment fit for brokering a deal – well more of a political fudge – will start to emerge. But there are certain figures who London and Brussels don’t want to find out what is happening under the cloud of discontent.
While both sides hate to admit it, navigating the tricky waters of domestic politics is absolutely vital to reaching an international agreement.
Boris Johnson has the European Research Group of Brexiteer MPS to placate, while Maros Sefcovic, the EU’S negotiator, has France and Germany to keep on side.
Peeling back the onion layer of hardened rhetoric reveals that both the EU and UK aren’t actually that far apart and a deal might in fact be possible.
Both sides are talking tough but have insisted on leaving the door open for further talks on the Protocol, with a negotiated solution the best option.
Announcing three separate lawsuits against Britain, Mr Sefcovic pulled his punches and refused to use most draconian weapons in his arsenal to punish the Government’s alleged misdemeanour.
The first is an old case, paused last year, on Downing Street’s decision to unilaterally suspend checks on food, plants and pets in a breach of EU rules.
The second and third are new cases in response to Britain’s failure to properly staff border inspection posts in Northern Ireland and a failure to share adequate levels of customs data.
Most importantly, none of these so-called infringement proceedings is to do with the alleged breach of international law with the introduction of the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill.
To keep the door open, Brussels instead revisited a series of concessions it offered in October last year, spelling out how its plans of a trusted trader system and “express lanes” between Great Britain and Northern Ireland could dramatically reduce the need for trade checks.
While there are huge chunks of both sides’ plans the other doesn’t like, that is always the case in Brexit negotiations. But as the dust cloud clears, proposals slowly drop away until a landing zone is found and a deal signed.