Biden is no longer cheering for the EU over N Ireland

While Britain has the role of Ukraine’s most vocal ally, it is more difficult for the US to point the finger

It wasn’t long ago that Joe Biden was lecturing Boris Johnson on the importance of the Northern Ireland Protocol, hard-set in his sympathy for Dublin and insistent that the Prime Minister must learn to live with the imperfections of a deal that he had personally negotiated.

But just as Russia’s war in Ukraine has uprooted decades of foreign and trade policy almost overnight, so too has it shifted the minds of America’s political elite when it comes to the Protocol. With full-scale war now taking place on European soil, Washington is far more interested in finding solutions over trade disputes between the UK and the European Union than it is in Brexit punishments.

“It’s what isn’t being said that gives you an indication of how things have changed”, says one government insider close to the UK-US talks. Just months ago, Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, was threatening to kill a trade deal between the two countries if politics over the Protocol continued to play out. But as tensions between the UK and EU have risen – and as Britain has moved to pull the plug on the Protocol – the usual critics have been notably quiet. “The signal we’ve been given is that what happens with the Protocol won’t impact our bilateral economic relationship with the States,” they tell me. It’s a big shift in position since the start of the year.

There have been public indications of softening towards the UK’S position, too. This week, Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State, used his official Twitter account to draw attention to his “good call” with Liz Truss, the Foreign Secretary, which not only covered ongoing support for Ukraine, but the Protocol as well, noting “the need to continue negotiations with the EU to find solutions”. It was a public declaration of good will towards the UK: stating that relationships with the UK’S lead negotiator remain solid, while also acknowledging that the status quo – the Protocol – is no longer working.

In Whitehall, there’s a sense that not only has Russia’s war put infighting in Europe into perspective, but also that Washington’s biggest fear – threatening the stability of the Good Friday Agreement – is worsening with the Protocol in place. While a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic has been avoided, the pain being caused to small and mediumsized businesses through extremely rigid trade barriers is increasingly cutting Belfast off from the rest of the UK, stirring up tensions from a different angle.

“Our message has resonated on the Hill,” says a Whitehall official working on the Protocol negotiations. “There’s increased understanding that something has to change.”

The idea of a “landing zone” has also caught DC’S attention: a term used by both UK and EU officials to discuss areas of agreement and compromise over the Protocol. Truss’s emphasis on commonalities between the UK and the bloc, including commitment to sovereignty, democracy and liberal economic visions, has helped build confidence in DC that Britain is acting in good faith at the negotiating table.

None of this is to say that Biden will be coming out anytime soon to point fingers at the EU for its dogmatic approach to the Protocol, the bloc’s refusal to budge or recognise UK standards as broadly being in line with their own. From a purely political perspective, America is already in a midterm election mindset. Right now the Democrats are at a severe disadvantage, as the blame for price spirals has successfully been placed at Biden’s door for his almost $2trillion (£1.6trillion) stimulus package last year that carried great inflationary risks. Biden still sees Irish Americans, especially those who feel strongly about their ancestry, as a not-soinsignificant base to appeal to when it comes to voter turnout.

But he may not be as vocal in using the UK-EU negotiating process to secure it, as over the past few months it has become harder for the president to dish out lectures to Britain as he was doing last year. This is primarily down to two factors: Russia’s war and internal battles in the United States.

Britain has taken on the role of leading ally to Ukraine and loudest critic of Russia. This current dynamic suits Biden just fine, as American voters on the Left and Right have pivoted towards a more dovish outlook following decades worth of botched military interventions, not to mention the president’s abysmal attempt of withdrawal from Afghanistan. As long as Britain is taking up the international role of being Ukraine’s most vocal ally (allowing the US to bankroll Ukraine’s fight back through quieter means) it’s much more difficult for Biden to point the finger at Johnson over foreign policy issues.

Furthermore, domestic implosions in the States risk any finger-pointing from Biden being turned back on him. With America’s Roe v Wade judgment from the Supreme Court expected imminently, Biden may face accusations from the West that American women’s rights are being dialled back by 50 years, and he will scramble in Congress to bring forward legislation that provides even the most basic provisions for accessing abortion.

Meanwhile, America’s failure to tackle rising violence since the pandemic ( gun deaths from homicide and suicide in 2022 alone are about to hit 20,000) has also crippled the president’s ability to make grandstanding comments about securing peace, not least because he served as vice-president when the Democrats held a super-majority in Congress under Obama, yet failed to bring in any meaningful legislation to tackle violence and mental health issues that are rife throughout America.

The Biden administration is never going to approve of the UK acting unilaterally over the Protocol. But the US’S relative silence on the issue now stands in clear contrast to the official demarche – an extremely unusual act between such close allies – that the US dished out over the Protocol last year.

Some of this can be attributed to a change in perspective, some to tough political realities Stateside. Either way, the US taking a quieter approach gives Britain more space to manoeuvre – and to push the EU for compromise.