Delta plus variant not a big threat, say experts

Looming increase in Covid cases will be offset by high levels of vaccinations across UK, scientists say

There is no need to worry about a summer Covid wave fuelled by a “delta plus” variant, scientists have said. Covid cases are increasing in the UK, as are hospitalisations, but deaths remain low. There had been worries that a strain of delta called delta plus, which is more deadly but less transmissible than omicron, may be gaining traction, but experts said good levels of immunity and more outdoor socialising during summer would help to stop it taking hold.

THERE is no need to worry about a summer Covid wave fuelled by a “delta plus” variant, scientists have said.

Covid cases are increasing in the UK, as are hospitalisations, but deaths remain low and experts think the summer will pass without too much issue.

Omicron is the dominant variant in the UK and has been since it emerged at the end of last year, but the original form has now been supplanted by the sub-variants BA.4 and BA.5.

There had been worries that a strain of delta called delta plus, which is more deadly but less transmissible than omicron, may be gaining traction in the UK, but experts allayed concerns.

Prof Azeem Majeed, chairman of primary care and public health at Imperial College London, said: “For now, variants such as BA.4 and BA.5 are a bigger problem than delta plus.

“The nature of [Covid] means that mutations will be common. Fortunately, we now have good systems for identifying and tracking new variants globally.

“The number of reported cases of the delta plus variant are small in comparison to the omicron sub-variants that are currently circulating.”

Prof Sir Andrew Pollard, chairman of the joint committee on vaccination and immunisation (JCVI) and director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, said the UK has “good levels of immunity across the population, and summer means more outdoor time and less indoor social contact which should both reduce transmission”.

However, he added that “there were more restrictions in place during previous waves, including mask wearing and various degrees of social distancing which might mean that we should expect higher transmission”.

When asked about delta plus on the BBC Radio 4 Today programme, Prof John Edmunds, a member of Sage and a Covid modeller from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said he was “not overly worried”.

“I would have thought the coming wave will be no worse than we have had in the last few months,” he added.

Prof Majeed also thought the summer would be relatively uneventful in the Covid landscape, saying: “I think we might see some uptick but I think the protective effects of vaccination and prior infection will see us through the summer OK.”

Some 5,726 patients in hospital in England and Wales had Covid on June 20, up 24 per cent on the previous week but around a third of the level reached at the peak of the BA.2 wave, Government figures show.

Hospital numbers in both nations had been declining steadily since early April, following the peak of the omicron BA.2 wave of infections.

Separate ONS figures published yesterday showed that 284 deaths involving Covid were registered in England and Wales in the week to June 10, up from 186 the previous week.

While this is the first increase in six weeks, it will include a backlog of deaths that needed to be registered following the Jubilee bank holidays on June 2 and 3, when most council offices were closed.

Despite the consensus that the next few months should be quiet, there is growing disquiet about autumn’s booster jabs. The JCVI has so far advised another Covid dose for over-65s, the clinically vulnerable, care home residents and health care workers.

“Vaccines do still work but most of us were boosted probably six months ago and we do know protection does wane over time,” Prof Edmunds warned.