‘Heat dome’ could bring more 40C days
Wales has hottest day ever as firms say ‘use water wisely’ and forecasters predict August blast
‘We’re going to hopefully see an end to this in a couple of days’ time. It will at least dip down, but there is a remaining risk of going back up again’
TEMPERATURES are expected to hit 40C (104F) today for the first time in Britain, as forecasters warned that record-breaking heat could return later in the summer.
A two-day period of unprecedented weather conditions resulted in Wales setting a new provisional temperature record of 37.1C yesterday afternoon, almost two degrees higher than the previous record.
In England, Santon Downham in Suffolk recorded a high of 38.1C, just 0.6C lower than the current UK national record, set in Cambridge in 2019, making it the third-hottest day ever recorded. Meteorologists predicted highs of 40C in Peterborough, Grantham and Doncaster this afternoon, with a 95 per cent chance that the record will fall.
Dr Nikos Christidis, a climate attribution scientist for the Met Office, said: “We hoped we wouldn’t get to this situation, but for the first time ever we are forecasting greater than 40C in the UK.
“The chances of seeing 40C days in the UK could be as much as 10 times more likely in the current climate than under a natural climate unaffected by human influence.”
Much of England had temperatures that never dropped below 20C overnight, officially a “tropical night”, a rare event linked to dangerous health effects for the elderly and vulnerable.
Forecasters said that hot, dry weather would continue later into the summer, potentially leading to hosepipe bans and other water use restrictions.
A “heat dome” is expected to develop over the Mediterranean in August that could pull very high temperatures into the UK once again. The current heatwave has been caused by air from the Sahara moving north into southern Europe, where high temperatures have been recorded since July 10.
Forecasters said UK temperatures could rise again if the same southerly winds that brought this week’s heat to Britain return.
Prof Hannah Cloke, a natural hazards researcher at the University of Reading, said: “We’re going to hopefully see an end to this in a couple of days’ time.
“It will at least dip down, but there is a remaining risk of going back up again, in a week or so afterwards, looking at the longer-range forecast.
“That’s Europe and the UK. That’s pretty concerning.”
Marco Petagna, a Met Office forecaster, said there was a “continued likelihood of further very hot weather developing at times on the near continent”, which could be blown into the UK by southerly winds, adding that there was also a “concerning” lack of rain in long-range forecasts. The hot weather is expected to break tomorrow as a front from the west brings cooler air, and some areas will see rain and thunder, with more rain on Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be as high as 30C in Lincolnshire and Yorkshire tomorrow but will be closer to 20C in the South West.
Water companies said reservoir and aquifer levels that were healthy last week were rapidly depleting because of “record” usage levels as people attempted to cool down, warning that hosepipe bans could be introduced later in the year to conserve supplies.
Southern Water, which serves the coastal area of south-east England, said it was “increasingly likely” that such a ban could be introduced for waterstressed areas in Hampshire and the Isle of Wight.
It said it wanted to keep “disruption to a minimum” but urged customers to “use water wisely at all times”.
A spokesman for industry group Water UK said that companies were seeing “unprecedented peak demand”.