Putin’s Iran gamble

The geopolitical fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to reverberate through Europe and beyond. Now the crisis is exacerbating tensions in the Middle East and the Gulf as Vladimir Putin seeks allies and new markets to circumvent Western sanctions.

The Russian president is visiting Tehran for talks with Iran’s leaders. He will also see President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey for his first face-to-face meeting with a Nato leader since the invasion back in February.

This gathering will be watched with trepidation in Washington, London and the capitals of Europe. It is a deliberate counterpoint to Joe Biden’s recent visit to Israel and Saudi Arabia – Tehran’s primary rivals in the region.

Like Russia, Iran is seen as a pariah state because of its nuclear ambitions and is seeking common cause with another. Mr Putin needs weapons to replace the huge loss of ordnance in Ukraine and Iran will supply them if it can.

They are both major oil and gas producers and can work out a strategy to maximise the harm to the West’s economies from limiting fuel supplies while ensuring high prices for their exports – prices to be paid by the very countries that are seeking their isolation.

As a sign of things to come, Russia’s Gazprom has told its customers in Europe that it cannot guarantee gas supplies because of “extraordinary” circumstances, invoking a so-called “act of God” clause allowing it to cancel otherwise legally binding contracts. How long will countries such as Germany and Italy, who are facing oil and gas shortages, be able to hold the line? Putin is gambling that they will start to wobble soon.