Putin will try to divide us

Such is the misery inflicted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that it is tempting to seize upon any emerging good news, such as the deal signed yesterday in Istanbul, which should allow exports of grain to begin again from Ukrainian Black Sea ports. It should ease the food crisis that has wrought havoc on the world in recent months, especially among poorer nations.

Yet we should not forget that the reason a deal was required in the first place was because of the Kremlin’s callous decision to weaponise food in an attempt to blackmail the international community. As his prosecution of this war shows, even in his treatment of his own soldiers, the human costs of conflict are immaterial to the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin.

There are still many hurdles to leap before grain can start flowing freely: mines will need to be cleared, ships guided through the explosives that remain and other vessels inspected for weapons.

But the hardest problem to overcome will be in trusting Putin to stick to his word. It is clear that the Ukrainians do not. Food may be back on the table, but they are dining with a very long spoon. They know that this war is likely to drag on, and that their adversary’s tactics and untrustworthiness mean that good news may soon be followed by bad.

Western leaders must now prepare their own peoples to deal with those same facts. From grain to gas, Russia will use every means to divide Nato allies in the months and years to come. The cost Putin imposes will undoubtedly be high. We must recognise that today and prepare for the sacrifices ahead.