Grain exports may not recover, Ukraine warns

Pre-war levels may not be achieved after deal to avoid global famine jeopardised by Kremlin, warns Kyiv

Ukraine warned last night that grain exports may not reach pre-war levels after Russia fired missiles at its main Black Sea port. Russia said it destroyed a warship and a stash of anti-ship missiles when it struck Odesa just hours after signing an agreement to break the grain blockade. The deal signed by Moscow and Kyiv on Friday was hailed as a diplomatic breakthrough to curb soaring global food prices by restoring Ukrainian grain shipments to five million tons a month.

UKRAINE warned last night that grain exports may not reach pre-war levels after Russia fired missiles at its main Black Sea port.

Russia said it destroyed a warship and a stash of anti-ship missiles when it struck Odesa just hours after signing an agreement to break the grain blockade.

The deal signed by Moscow and Kyiv on Friday was hailed as a diplomatic breakthrough to curb soaring global food prices by restoring Ukrainian grain shipments to five million tons a month.

But Volodomyr Zelensky’s economic adviser said that could be out of reach.

“Yesterday’s strike indicates that it will definitely not work like that,” Oleh Ustenko told Ukrainian television.

The Ukrainian military told the public broadcaster that the missiles did not hit the port’s grain storage area or cause significant damage, and preparations to resume grain shipments were ongoing.

“We continue technical preparations for the launch of exports of agricultural products from our ports,” said Oleksandr Kubrakov, the infrastructure minister. The Kremlin at first denied it had fired at Odesa, Ukraine’s largest port, the day after it had signed a deal to allow essential grain supplies to reach vulnerable countries.

But yesterday the foreign ministry said: “In the seaport of Odesa, sea-based high-precision long-range missiles destroyed a docked Ukrainian warship and a warehouse of Harpoon anti-ship missiles supplied by the United States to the Kyiv regime.”

The Kremlin had signed the deal to lift the blockade in Istanbul. It was negotiated by the UN and Turkey and was hailed as a vital breakthrough to avoid a global famine. The missile attack drew international condemnation and warnings that the deal may collapse before it had even started.

“Russia doesn’t break its patterns of breaking agreements,” said Lesia Vasylenko, a Ukrainian MP. “Yes, I was hopeful, along with all those countries waiting for the grain. But no surprises from Moscow, just their usual terrorist aggressive behaviour.”

The UN has said that grain supplies from Ukraine are critical. Ukraine accounts for around 16 per cent of global grain supplies and prices have risen rapidly since the start of the war when Russia imposed a blockade.

The UN has said that Ukraine’s grain exports could return to pre-war levels by the end of August. Ukraine’s defence of Snake Island, which guards shipping lanes in the Black Sea, and the arrival of US long-range artillery helped negotiations to force Russia to lift its blockade, but analysts have also said that lobbying from African and Middle Eastern allies may also have influenced the Kremlin.

One of the biggest purchasers of Russian and Ukrainian grain is Egypt, which hosted Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, for talks yesterday, the start of a tour of Africa.

The Egyptian government has maintained close relations with Russia and this week Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear agency, started work on Egypt’s long-delayed first nuclear power station. Mr Lavrov said that sanctions imposed by the West had created a global shortage of grain. “On the topic of food, the West must eliminate the problems it has created itself,” he said.

Some analysts have said that the Kremlin stands to benefit from lifting its blockade of Ukraine’s ports. It will earn more cash from grain and fertiliser sales, which will help fund its war in Ukraine, and also earn kudos among its allies in North Africa and the Middle East who are facing potential civil unrest with food price rises.

Elsewhere in Ukraine, Ukrainian officials said that Russian artillery had destroyed schools in the towns of Kostyantynivka and Bakhmut in Donbas.