Tory members, hold your votes for a few more weeks

The temptation to pick a side might be strong, but there is no pain in keeping the hopefuls waiting

Iwent to my local Conservative Party’s summer reception a few days ago and all the talk was about the harm we were doing to ourselves running a summer-long leadership election campaign. Of course, if it degenerated into blue-on-blue attacks it would not only destroy unity in the next Cabinet but give the Opposition all the material they need for the next general election.

Yet consider the alternative. Back in 2016, David Cameron suddenly resigned on the result of the EU referendum. In the ensuing leadership election, the run-off was between Andrea Leadsom and Theresa May. Within a few days, Andrea Leadsom retired from the race and Theresa May won by default.

As a result, we ended up with a prime minister who had been quite untested by the party membership, one who clearly was a Remainer but who gallantly sought to introduce a policy in which she clearly did not believe.

The result was a disaster – an impotent Parliament, until Theresa May called a snap election and promptly lost whatever little majority she had inherited from Cameron, and before long resigned. In the following leadership election, Boris won easily but it was an election dominated by Europe and he was clearly untested on many areas of domestic policy. Having finally walked into No10, he got us out of the EU, but had to resign before he had finished the job at least in part due to domestic policy failings.

Today, we are facing a very different world, with a war in Europe where, for the first time since the end of the last war, a major nuclear power has invaded a peaceful neighbour, and then actually threatened the UK and Europe with the use of nuclear missiles. As an inevitable result, the UK, the US and the EU are involved in a surrogate war, which could involve us all, if not handled with sufficient sensitivity. A world still recovering from a 100-year event, the Covid pandemic, a world in which European nations now face a winter without power and large parts of the world a winter without food.

So it is important that this leadership election is not wrapped up early. Conservative Party members will begin receiving their ballots this week and there will be a strong temptation to vote immediately. I urge them to instead wait and allow the leadership hopefuls to make their case.

The coming five weeks are an opportunity to test the candidates on their views and beliefs, on their approaches to the economy, to relationships with the European Union and the United States and, above all, to China and Vladimir Putin.

Of course, there is always a risk that we will end up with too much infighting, but I believe the risk to be even greater if this process elects a Prime Minister whose positions on a range of critical issues are not only unknown but improperly tested.

Already in the past week we have seen the fruits of a thorough election campaign, with some of the candidates’ policies evolving. Rishi Sunak was all for maintaining his tax increases but is now prepared to temper them. He has in the past 48 hours proposed a significant cut to income tax and a £10 fine if you fail to keep an NHS appointment (although charging someone who is ill and without money presents other problems).

Both he and Liz Truss, reacting to the recent spate of railway strikes, now propose to amend legislation to ensure that they will have to provide a minimum service in any event.

In a normal general election the parties issue a manifesto with a whole range of policies and you have a good idea what they intend to do. This process, over the next month or so, will produce a sort of manifesto so that the party members will have a good idea who, and what, they are voting for and the general public what they might expect. In the interests of members especially, the candidates’ policy commitments should move further towards Conservative principles as the contest goes on.

Liz has been in the Government for more than 10 years and held a number of major positions. She was a successful trade secretary and closed a record number of post-brexit trade deals and she is a strong supporter of an enterprise economy. She is now Foreign Secretary and her position on Ukraine, the EU and Nato, as well as immigrants and much else is already a matter of record, but the strength of her convictions still needs to be tested.

With Rishi much less is known and his views on a whole range of matters will now become a matter of record. His main experience in Government has been with the Treasury, both as chief secretary and later on of course as chancellor, but his views on foreign policy (on China in particular), and his views on Ukraine and military spending will be tested.

So over the next month both candidates will face a rigorous and exhausting programme of debates, hustings and interviews, and as a result their policies and their beliefs will be shaped and formed and we will see what they are made of. Our next Prime Minister will be leading our nation over what promises to be the most challenging years since the end of the Second World War and we will need the best candidate.

Let us give them the whole summer to impress us.