Foreign Secretary extends poll lead but ‘race is not over’

LIZ TRUSS has extended her lead over Rishi Sunak in the Tory leadership race, according to a poll of party members by Yougov.

The survey put Ms Truss, the Foreign Secretary, on 60 per cent of the vote and Mr Sunak, the former chancellor, on 26 per cent. That lead of 34 percentage points among decided Tory members is bigger than the previous Yougov poll last month, that put Ms Truss 18 points ahead.

Yet doubts remain about the reliability of Tory membership polling. Earlier yesterday, Prof Sir John Curtice said Ms Truss likely holds a “narrower” lead in the race for No10 than most polls show.

Writing for The Telegraph website, the polling expert cautioned against reading too much into the limited number of polls that have been carried out into the attitudes of the party faithful.

Other experts also warned that polls of Conservative members are generally not very accurate, and that those who are not using the internet may not be being reached at all.

Writing before the publication of the latest Yougov poll, Sir John said: “Liz Truss has near-universally been accorded the status of front runner in the Tory leadership contest. We are repeatedly told that polls put her well ahead. But there are now signs that her lead may be narrower than thought.”

A survey published by Italian firm Techne yesterday morning surprised Westminster by putting Ms Truss on 48 per cent and Mr Sunak on 43 per cent.

The differing results indicate the uncertain nature of political polling.

Experts warned polling Conservative

members is difficult and the lack of information about them means there is a greater risk of inaccurate results.

Chris Curtis, head of political polling at Opinium, said surveys of party members are rare because they are so time-consuming and costly to carry out.

Firms typically need to canvass more than 100,000 members of the public to find enough Tory members for a viable sample size, he added.