Shapps did his own research to prevent lockdown plan
THE Transport Secretary has revealed he had to do his own research to counter Sage scientists and helped block plans for a lockdown.
Grant Shapps said he constructed his own spreadsheets based on international data and sometimes presented his findings at Cabinet and critical Covid-o ministerial meetings to bolster ministers’ resistance to further Covid restrictions.
This proved particularly effective to counter pressure for a potential lockdown over Christmas 2021 in response to the threat from the omicron variant that had emerged in South Africa.
“I was able to present data based on three South African studies, which wasn’t available from the standard Sage presentation.
“In a close run discussion we didn’t lock down. The NHS wasn’t overrun,” said Mr Shapps.
His comments follow disclosures last week by former chancellor Rishi Sunak that members of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) had too much influence over Government decision-making during Covid and claims lockdown “trade-offs” were never properly discussed.
Mr Shapps, who is supporting Mr Sunak in the Tory leadership contest, said that at the start of Covid “there was of course no instruction manual for dealing with the first pandemic of modern times.” As a result, he added: “We all learnt as we went along.
“As ministers gained in confidence we did get to the point of being able to understand and analyse the data much better. In fact, I would construct spreadsheets based on international data and sometimes present my findings at Cabinet and Covid-o meetings.
“This analysis was particularly relevant when it came to talk about a Christmas 2021 lockdown.”
At the time Boris Johnson was under pressure from Sage scientists to go further than masks in shops and public transport and home working, but rejected the calls, which included demands for the cancellation of Christmas parties and other festive events.
“I’d taken the time to read three South African research reports into Omicron … to come up with my own version of the likely trajectory,” said Mr Shapps.
It proved correct. The first real-world data on the omicron variant, published by Edinburgh University three days before Christmas, showed infected people were up to two-thirds less likely to end up in hospital.