Autumn will feel more like UK summer beyond 2025

AUTUMN is likely to become more “summer-like” with drier and hotter seasons from 2025, increasing drought risk, the Met Office has said.

English autumns are likely to have a 4 to 12 per cent reduction in rainfall by the end of the century although storms are expected to be more extreme.

“One of the things we are already seeing in autumn as average seasonal temperatures rise is an increase in the number of extreme rainfall events,” said Daniel Cotterill, who led the study.

“But in future, we’re likely to see this drying effect as well.”

Extreme storms will not mitigate the impact of long-term dry periods that cause drought, Mr Cotterill said.

“To see how situations might unfold we could consider the autumn of 2020. On Oct 3 we saw the UK’S wettest day on record and the volume of rainfall could have filled Loch Ness,” he said.

“However, if you look at the overall rainfall for that autumn, it’s actually only 6 per cent above average and that is because of a drier September and November that year.”

The South West of England was officially moved to drought status by the Environment Agency yesterday.

The move leaves just three out of 14 areas of England not in drought. Wessex and Bristol Water said the declaration would not spell the need for hosepipe bans as their supplies were secure for this year. Both companies said their action to tackle leaks had contributed to their resilience during the driest year since 1976.

“Throughout the summer we’ve been keeping rivers and streams ‘topped up’ with 90 million litres of water per day that we’re able to pump up from groundwater sources,” a spokesman for Wessex Water said.

“We’re also fixing 1,200 leaks every month and have reduced leakage by 30 per cent in the last 20 years, which has helped to ease demand despite a 12 per cent increase in population.”

But both companies are expected to face a challenge if dry weather persists into next year, as meteorologists have warned. Chris Paul, the Environment Agency’s area drought lead, said: “Despite some heavy rain over the past two weeks, it has not been enough to refill our rivers and aquifers.

“River levels across our Wessex area are exceptionally low – many showing the lowest flows on record.

“This places incredible strain on local wildlife and this is why we are moving to drought status. We are prioritising our local operations to minimise impacts on the environment.”