One in four ‘will lose access to GP by 2030’

Staff shortages will leave up to 16 million people with no access to a GP practice, physicians claim

One in four people could be left without a GP within a decade, the Doctors’ Association UK has warned. The forecasts suggest that 16million people in England could be affected by growing staffing shortages. Tomorrow, Thérèse Coffey, the Health Secretary, is expected to set out plans to boost access to GPS, after warnings that public satisfaction is at a record low. The Health Foundation suggests the NHS will lose up to 8,800 full-time equivalent GPS by 2030.

ONE in four people could be left without a GP within a decade, a doctors’ organisation has claimed.

The forecasts from Doctors’ Association UK suggest that 16million people in England could be left without access to a family physician, amid growing staffing shortages.

Tomorrow, Thérèse Coffey, the new Health Secretary, is expected to set out plans to boost access to GPS, after warnings that public satisfaction is at its lowest level on record. Research by the Health Foundation suggests the NHS will lose up to 8,800 full-time equivalent GPS by 2030 if current trends continue.

Doctors’ Association UK said this could leave a quarter of people without access to a GP.

In a letter to Ms Coffey, who was appointed Health Secretary earlier this month, the group says that without urgent action “the NHS will become a sinking ship”.

Ms Coffey has promised to set out “clear expectations” of the NHS, with the Prime Minister promising “immediate action to make sure that people are able to get appointments with their GP”.

Ms Coffey is expected to set out details of a new focus on her four priorities – “A, B, C, D – ambulances, backlogs, care, doctors and dentists” as part of efforts to avert an NHS winter crisis.

Dr Lizzie Toberty, GP lead for the Doctors’ Association UK, said the workload of a GP now places “unrealistic demands” on them. She said: “GPS will cut their hours, quit the NHS, or quit the country ... we fear patients will suffer the same ‘postcode lottery’ for seeing their GP as many do now with getting an NHS dentist.”

The warning comes as family doctors threaten industrial action over a contract that forces some practices to open on Saturdays.

GPS said the loss of almost 9,000 doctors over seven years would cause a “public health catastrophe” given the average medic has a caseload of about 2,000 patients.

Dr Toberty said: “We are hurtling rapidly towards the end of the NHS as we know it, where those who can [will ] pay – and those who can’t [will] suffer.

“And, just as in dentistry, there is evidence of a rapidly expanding private GP sector. For those who cannot pay, my worry is they will die young of entirely preventable diseases,” Dr Toberty said.

Earlier this year, figures from the British Social Attitudes survey revealed that under two-fifths of people were satisfied with the service from their family doctors last year, the lowest proportion since the survey began in 1983.

That follows warnings that almost 1.5million patients have lost their GP in the past eight years after the closure of almost 500 practices.

GP partners – who make up the majority of family doctors – saw average incomes rise by £20,000 to £142,000 in the 12 months after the first lockdown.

Some of the extra money came from delivering the Covid vaccine rollout with other funds linked to payments for tasks which GPS no longer had to do during the pandemic.

Those figures come amid concern over access to GPS. Before the pandemic, about 80 per cent of consultations were in person, falling to as low as 47 per cent in the first lockdown. Since then, it has risen to 65 per cent. The

‘For those who cannot pay [privately] my worry is they will die young of entirely preventable diseases’

doctors’ organisation today calls for a number of changes, including specific payments to GPS for carrying out administrative duties, and extension of sickness self-certification so people can be off work for up to a month without a doctor’s note.

Meanwhile, the British Medical Association was accused of holding the NHS “hostage” after telling medics to charge £250 an hour for night work.

But Dr Vishal Sharma, of the BMA, said: “With the NHS as overstretched and understaffed as it is, NHS trusts are repeatedly asking consultants to do more and more work on top of their normal working hours which, as well as regular overtime at standard rates of pay, often includes many unpaid hours of work on top of that.”

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesman said: “There are nearly 1,500 more full-time equivalent doctors working in general practice now than in 2019 and we are spending £1.5billion to create 50 million more appointments by 2024 – alongside making changes to reduce the workload of GPS and free up appointments.”